Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: FRIDAY, March 8, 1991 TAG: 9103080720
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A-13 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: PAXTON DAVIS
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
Looking at the mess the United States has now created in the Persian Gulf, one might invert Clausewitz and say that peace is the "continuation of war by other means."
Enthusiasts for the war, or those who believe that the war is "over," will have to avert their eyes, hold their noses and think of something else as they wave their flags and flaunt their yellow ribbons.
The war is only "over" by the narrowest definition of the word, and that one dubious. The bombing has ended - for the moment. Artillery, tank and rifle fire have ended - for the moment. Direct confrontation between gun-toting enemies has ended - for the moment.
But the land mines are still mostly unexploded. The chance that one will be killed by the friendly fire of Kuwaiti celebrants, who seem unable to grasp the simple point that a bullet fired in the air must sometime come down, remains substantial. Worse, though: Most of the problems that existed in the Middle East before the war began are not only as dire as ever but deepened by the intervention of George Bush and his "coalition," and to them the war has added new problems equally dire and possibly even more intractable.
Among them:
1. Iraq has withdrawn from Kuwait and accepted all of the terms of the United Nations resolutions directing it to do so - but its large army remains largely intact; it appears to have salvaged many of its weapons; its officer corps, many of whom fled the scene to avoid their soldiers' fate, still appears to be in firm command. Though badly battered and humiliated, the Iraqi army, if not prepared to wage another offensive war immediately, remains a potential source of trouble.
2. Saddam Hussein, whose aggressive policies (and probably paranoid world-view) set it all off last summer via the invasion of Kuwait, is similarly discredited in Western eyes - but he appears to remain in power; he may have silenced in advance all rivals to succeed him; his unrestrained hatred of the nations composing the "coalition" suggests he may launch new misadventures, including terrorism, against them; and he has made himself, even in defeat, a hero to millions of Arabs who hail his war on Western imperialism and colonialism as righteous. If he vanishes, others are likely to emulate him.
3. The military resistance to Iraq by the "coalition" has stirred deeply lodged hatreds within the Arab world, and may well have given it a political legitimacy and unity it has never shown before. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Syria remained loyal to the "coalition" - but that loyalty is not necessarily supported by the populations of those countries; the role of Syria seems merely cynical opportunism aimed at unsettling a rival Arab power; and Jordan and Libya notoriously remained loyal to Iraq. The fears and hatred of Western intervention stirred by Saddam Hussein, who exploited them relentlesssly in his effort to divide the "coalition," may come back to haunt the rest of the world.
4. The destabilization of the Middle East created by the defeat of Iraq deepens an instability already treacherous to the interest of peace. Iraq was whipped, militarily - but its stability, however deeply rooted in a despotism hateful to many others, made it an important counterweight to Iran and Turkey and thus, ironically, a keystone of regional peace. A shattered and fragmented Iraq, Middle East experts agree, threatens the region in a variety of unpredictable ways.
5. The environmental damage to the Persian Gulf itself caused by the oil with which Iraq flooded it may prove of incalculable danger to the region and beyond; the damage done by the smoke of refinery fires poses an equally difficult ecological danger.
6. Resolution of the conflict between Israel and the Arabs remains and may have been deepened by the war, which at all times threatened to become not merely a war to repel Iraq from Kuwait but a war on Israel itself. It is certainly true that the war may have enhanced chances for the settlement of long-standing issues between them - but by uniting the Arabs and stiffening resistance to negotation it may have accomplished only the opposite. Nor should anyone doubt that the Arabs want Israel not merely controlled but destroyed.
A war that makes matters worse than they were before it happened may be the norm in human history. But "support the troops" as enthusiastically as you like, it hardly seems something to celebrate.
by CNB