
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: FRIDAY, April 19, 1991                   TAG: 9104190106
SECTION: BUSINESS                    PAGE: A7   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Medium

JOBLESS BENEFIT CLAIMS DROP

The government reported Thursday that the number of people filing initial claims for unemployment benefits plunged for a second straight week in early April, leading some economists to declare the end of the recession is at hand.

The Labor Department said new applications for jobless benefits fell by 22,000 in the week ending April 6 after a drop of 70,000 a week earlier.

The two consecutive drops pushed the total for initial claims downward to a seasonally adjusted 451,000 for the first week in April. Initial claims had been above the half-million mark for three consecutive weeks earlier in March, their highest level since the 1981-82 recession was drawing to a close.

Economists had been looking for claims to rise again for the first week of April. They said the two consecutive weekly declines was the strongest indication yet that the current recession could soon be over.

"We have had a clear change in momentum on unemployment. If we can hold at this level for a week or two, I would be prepared to say this recession is over," said David Rolley, senior financial economist at DRI-McGraw Hill.

Analysts cautioned that the jobless claims report can be extremely volatile from week to week, but they said if coming weeks confirm the two drops already reported then the economy could begin growing again by June.

Bruce Steinberg, an economist with Merrill Lynch in New York, said he had been in the camp that believed a sustained economic recovery would not begin until fall. He said further jobless claims improvements would prompt him to move up the recovery timetable.

In a separate report, the American Business Conference said that a survey of its member companies found them significantly more upbeat about the future than they had been a month earlier. The business executives reported stronger sales, higher profit margins and larger investment outlays in April than in March.

"This survey gives further evidence that the recent recession has bottomed out and that recovery is on the way," said Barry Rogstad, president of the Business Conference, which represents 100 of the country's fastest growing companies.

by CNB