Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, April 21, 1991 TAG: 9104210097
SECTION: SPORTS PAGE: D8 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: JIM DUCIBELLA LANDMARK NEWS SERVICE
DATELINE: CHANTILLY LENGTH: Medium
Or maybe they will be Richard, Michigan fullback Jarrod Bunch and Penn State receiver Dave Daniels.
Or how about defensive lineman Eric Swann, who never played college football, receiver Emmanuel Hazard of Houston and Arizona State running back Leonard Russell?
Welcome to the most inexact science in all of sport, drafting NFL players. The names listed above have been put forth as probable Redskins selections by so-called experts in the field.
"I'd say mock drafts are 90 percent accurate usually," Washington general manager Charley Casserly said. "But one thing can happen to change the whole draft. If it happens early, it sets off a chain-reaction."
After all, this is the same exercise in which Green Bay, in 1979, was prepared to draft quarterback Joe Montana. Then coach Bart Starr stepped in, overruled his talent scouts and Montana fell into the 49ers hands.
With equal cunning and skill, the Bengals, absolutely desperate for a quarterback in 1984, waited until the second round to nab Boomer Esiason of Maryland. That might not have been so bad, except that Cincinnati had three first-round picks that year. They took linebacker Ricky Hunley, defensive tackle Pete Koch and guard/tackle Brian Blados. All became members of the Who's Dat Hall of Fame.
Of course, what does it say about the rest of the NFL that Esiason was still available when the Bengals drafted in the second round?
It says what we all should know, but have chosen to forget since ESPN tried to make the NFL's annual reloading seem like rocket science - that there are so many intangibles and variables in a player making the NFL that it is amazing anyone ever gets it right.
Take the case of Dave McDaniels, a supposed speed-merchant receiver who preceded Jerry Rice at Mississippi Valley State. Dallas held high hopes when it drafted him in 1968, but it turned out McDaniels barely outran Tom Landry.
Seems the field on which the Cowboys had timed him in the 40-yard dash was only 38 yards long.
Casserly said there are three great players in today's draft. They are Notre Dame's Rocket Ismail, "one of the best athletes we've ever seen;" Nebraska linebacker Mike Croel, "one of the best [linebackers] we have ever seen;" and Notre SPORTS PAGE D REDSKINS ANALYSIS Dame cornerback Todd Lyght, "one of the best cornerbacks in the last 10 years."
Unfortunately for Washington, though this is one of those rare years in which they actually have a first-round pick, it won't come until 19 others have been selected. Ismail, Croel and Lyght will be long gone by then.
Because eight juniors were selected in the first round a year ago, the cream of this year's crop is much thinner than usual. Anyone the Redskins pick will carry a certain amount of risk, not only that he won't start, but that he might not even make the team.
A source inside the Redskins says that Casserly has circled the following names as those he most would like to take: outside linebackers Croel, Kevin Harris of Texas Southern and Alfred Williams of Colorado; running backs Nick Bell of Iowa, Louisiana State's Harvey Williams and Leonard Russell of Arizona State; and safeties Richard and Eric Turner of UCLA.
Most likely, all top-shelf linebackers and safeties would have to be gone for the Redskins to look at taking a running back in the first round. After all, they already have Earnest Byner, Gerald Riggs, Brian Mitchell and Plan B signee John Settle.
Then again, who would have thought the Redskins, long noted for their strength and depth of their offensive line, would "waste" their second pick (third round) on Mohammad Elewonibi, an injury-prone offensive tackle from Brigham Young?
The answer is no one, which is the primary reason why predicting the NFL draft is like predicting winning lottery numbers.
Then again, you've got to play to win. So what's my prediction for the Redskins?
Alfred Williams, the pass-rushing linebacker from Colorado.
\ AUTHOR Jim Ducibella covers the Washington Redskins for the Norfolk Virginian-Pilot.
by CNB