Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, February 20, 1992 TAG: 9202200182
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: JACK NELSON LOS ANGELES TIMES
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium
BUSH IN FOR CAMPAIGN DUEL
Despite his strong showing in the New Hampshire primary, Pat Buchanan remains virtually no threat to President Bush's renomination. But the conservative television commentator could seriously weaken Bush's chances for re-election in November by pressing his hard-hitting campaign through the primaries and exploiting underlying weaknesses in the GOP.Buchanan has neither the money nor the campaign organization to seriously contest the many Republican primaries of the next month, especially in Georgia, South Carolina and other Southern states, where Bush is stronger than he was in New Hampshire.
In fact, many GOP activists say New Hampshire could be Buchanan's high water mark. New Hampshire has a proportional primary, so Buchanan won some delegates to the GOP convention. But most of the other Republican primaries are winner-take-all, so even a strong second-place showing by Buchanan will not gain him any delegates.
The official tally Wednesday for New Hampshire's Republican primary showed a large write-in vote shrinking Bush's victory margin. The revised figures also dropped Buchanan's showing to under 40 percent of the vote.
Many of the write-in votes in the GOP primary were for the five major Democratic presidential hopefuls and for consumer advocate Ralph Nader, the New Hampshire secretary of state's office reported.
Bush's total was 92,233, or 52.9 percent. Buchanan got 65,087, or 37.3 percent. There were 13,081 write-in votes, for 7.5 percent. The other candidates listed on the GOP ballot received 3,764 or 2.2 percent.
Unofficial vote tallies by The Associated Press and the News Election Service on Tuesday night had shown a 58-40 split between Bush and Buchanan.
Many had seen 40 percent as a benchmark for Buchanan's delivering a serious setback to Bush.
Nevertheless, in the longer term, Buchanan represents a problem for Bush similar to one faced by Democratic President Carter in 1980: How to beat back an insurgent challenger without alienating his supporters. Republican strategists call it a major headache and say Bush starts out already having alienated his conservative base.
On Wednesday the president vowed to "take this guy on in every single state.
"I've been very kind and gentle. I'll still be kind, and I'm now debating how gentle to be," Bush said in his first public remarks on Tuesday's vote.
If Buchanan carries his attacks all the way to Houston's Republican convention in August, as many GOP activists suggest he may, Bush would be drawn into a fight that could further divide his party and distract him from concentrating on his Democratic opposition. Kevin Phillips, a Republican political strategist, calls that "the Bush White House ultimate nightmare."
Carter fought a bruising battle in turning back a more serious challenge from Sen. Edward Kennedy and spent much of his time in the 1980 campaign struggling to unify his party instead of concentrating on Ronald Reagan's challenge. After being defeated by Reagan, Carter blamed Kennedy and the loss of liberal Democratic votes for his defeat.
Bush, too, undoubtedly faces a bitter struggle. Buchanan, a political alley fighter, already has challenged the president's credibility, called his State of the Union address "a giant political scam," and hurled other insults at him.
GOP strategists agree Bush needs to beat Buchanan convincingly to enter the general election campaign in a strong position. But they disagree over whether he ought to go after Buchanan's "dark side" and extremist views.
Two of former President Reagan's senior campaign strategists, Ed Rollins and Lyn Nofziger, say that while there's no question Bush will win the nomination, he must be careful not to lock horns with Buchanan and cause his supporters to desert the Republican ticket.
"Buchanan's a distraction and a problem for Bush, but not a serious threat for the nomination," said Rollins, whose wife, Sherrie, is an assistant to the president for public liaison.
"But if Bush gets into the gutter with him and alienates his troops, then it's hard to pull them back in the fall," Rollins said. "In beating Buchanan, Bush has got to make sure his message is geared against the Democrats, and that won't be easy. If I had a simple solution I would fax it to the White House. Bush cannot afford to make Buchanan an issue."
Nofziger said: "George Bush is a bulldog at campaigning and he will hang in there and be tough, but what he has to do is win this thing without alienating the conservatives any more than he already has. It's a big problem for him."
Some information in this report came from The Associated Press.