Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, June 17, 1993 TAG: 9308260255
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A15 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Ray L. Garland
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
The poll, taken just five days after the GOP convention, showed gubernatorial candidate George Allen enlisting the support of 31 percent of voters, against 49 percent for Democrat Mary Sue Terry, with 20 percent undecided.
But, as Allen's spokesman was at pains to point out, Terry has two statewide campaigns and seven years as attorney general under her belt. Also, the same poll a month earlier showed her with an even larger lead.
So, while Allen's position at the outset of the race is hardly comforting, it is by no means hopeless. What can't be counted upon is Terry making any big mistakes. If Allen is to win, he must do it the old-fashioned way.
The first issue Allen must address is the role of his running-mates, Michael Farris for lieutenant governor and James Gilmore for attorney general. While Allen, conceivably, could lift them into contention, they can't do the same for him. Let me rephrase that: They can't do much to help, but as loose cannons they could do a lot to hurt.
There are exceptions, but Virginians generally think in terms of electing a ticket to the state's top three offices. In voting for lieutenant governor and attorney general, they are guided in large measure by their choice for governor.
My own experience in this is dated, but I witnessed the phenomenon at firsthand in Marshall Coleman's campaign for attorney general in 1977. We started that race about where the Mason-Dixon poll shows the race now, which is 28 percent for Democrat William Dolan and 21 percent for Gilmore.
Despite everything Coleman did, the numbers changed very little. In fact, the last tracking poll, taken just four days before the election, still showed him a few points behind, with an astonishing 40 percent of voters claiming to be undecided. When the votes were counted, however, Coleman won comfortably.
While I believe we ran the better campaign, the tide of support that materialized on Election Day had less to do with our efforts than it had to do with the landslide that was gathering behind John Dalton at the top of the ticket.
This is a roundabout way of saying that somebody must sit Farris and Gilmore down and tell them plainly that their only hope resides in Allen, and they should get behind him and not in his way. The most useful role they can play is working the boondocks, firming up the GOP base by doing the heavy lifting against the Democrats, leaving Allen free to take the high road.
Given the troubles of Gov. Douglas Wilder, Sen. Charles Robb and President Clinton, Republicans will be tempted to run a negative campaign. Allen should resist that. He will get the dissatisfied vote without having to fight for it.
Since the arrival of competitive, two-party politics in Virginia, there appears to have been a countervailing trend benefitting the party that doesn't hold the White House. It's probably good for two or three points. But add this to the GOP base and Allen is still five or six points out of the money.
One large group Republicans have traditionally written off is state employees and teachers, numbering almost 200,000. Promising to address their numerous grievances, which have grown under Wilder, might dislodge a bundle of traditional Democratic votes. But that would require Allen to soft-pedal his opposition to new taxes, which these same voters see as the mother's milk of better wages and benefits.
On the sensitive subject of taxes, Allen should bear in mind that the three previous, failed GOP candidates for governor also made a grand flourish of their opposition to fresh levies. Allen could do worse than resurrect Coleman's old theme, ``We must make do with what we have and make what we have do better.''
That would fit nicely with what he's already started doing, pointing out that state spending has grown from $6 billion in 1982 to $15 billion now and saying he will institute a top-to-bottom review of all operations of state government to improve services and cut costs.
Allen is a young, energetic and attractive candidate, but putting those virtues across will depend upon making the right choice among competing media wizards. It will be the most important decision of the entire campaign.
While good polls beget good campaign contributions, and Allen will suffer in this sphere for some time, it's likely he will raise at least the $6 million required for an adequate campaign.
What he must do is avoid front-loading his campaign with a costly apparatus. The outcome will not be decided by who has the largest staff and the most impressive headquarters. But it may be decided by which candidate dominates television with the most powerful message in the last two weeks. As soon as the fall schedules open up for buying, Allen must buy everything he needs to assure that he will not be outgunned during the final push.
It's nice to have early media, but it seldom decides the outcome. If your opponent is dominating the media when those undecided and wavering voters are breaking cover, however, you have almost no chance.
Allen must resist the temptation to spend as he goes, waiting until he has the money in hand to make his final media buys. He must throw his cap over the wall, decide what it will take to dominate the airwaves at the end, and direct all his efforts toward assuring the money will be there to pay for it. If that means putting the campaign on short rations until then, so be it.
\ Ray L. Garland is a Roanoke Times & World-News columnist.
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