Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, September 19, 1994 TAG: 9409220008
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-4 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: By DWAYNE YANCEY and DAVID M. POOLE STAFF WRITERS
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
Douglas Wilder's abrupt exit from the Senate race last week left politics-watchers scrambling to come up with a new conventional wisdom. Fortunately, the two polls that drove Wilder from the race - one by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research and one by Virginia Commonwealth University - provide some guidance.
Whom does Wilder's exit help most?
Easy. Democratic incumbent Charles Robb. Here's why: The VCU poll showed that the biggest chunk of Wilder supporters, almost four of every 10, listed Robb as their next choice. Two of 10 leaned toward independent Marshall Coleman. Left to their own devices, the odds are that most of Wilder's supporters will drift into Robb's camp.
If Coleman stays in the race, whom does that help and hurt?
Coleman in appears to help Republican Oliver North; Coleman out appears to help Robb. That's because the VCU poll shows the biggest chunk of Coleman supporters say Robb is their second choice. For now, Coleman is drawing much of his support from Republicans who say they can't stomach North and would rather vote for a Democrat than see North elected.
Now that Wilder's gone, will Coleman also drop out?
For that, we turn to the man himself, who declared in Salem last week: "I'm sticking with it."
He says Wilder's departure helps his candidacy because it "crystallizes" the race, simplifying the voters' choice. If they don't like Robb and North, he's the only alternative they've got. Think of Coleman as a surfer. He's convinced a tide of voter outrage against both Robb and North will swell up in late October and carry him into office.
North's mom mum
The pro-Ollie audience groaned in unison at the recent Hampden-Sydney debate when North said his 76-year-old mother lives on a "very small pension" and relies on Social Security.
The crowd's reaction echoed the next morning in a Richmond Times-Dispatch lead editorial. "Were listeners to infer that he doesn't support his mom? If the statement wasn't - uh - precise, has the old question about North and truth returned?"
Attempts to reach Mrs. North - who has never granted an interview since her son became a national figure in 1987 - at her apartment in Kinderhook, N.Y., were unsuccessful.
But North's sister confirmed that her mother lives on a modest income and has refused offers of assistance from all four of her children.
"She wants to maintain her independence," said Patricia North Balthazor, a speech therapist in California. "Each one of us have offered her our homes, but she doesn't want that - at least not yet."
Balthazor said her mother allowed Oliver to provide her with one comfort: a room air-conditioner for her apartment.
Warner heads South
Republican Sen. John Warner has begun to pay a price for refusing to support North as the GOP nominee.
Warner's approval rating, which got an initial boost after he shunned North, has tumbled to its lowest level in at least nine years.
A Mason-Dixon poll released last week showed that 54 percent of Virginians say Warner's performance is "excellent" or "good." That is a decline of 14 percentage points from a similar survey taken in June.
The poll also showed that President Clinton's ratings continued their downward trend in the Old Dominion. Those who rated his performance "poor" rose from 28 percent to 32 percent between June and September - a possibly ominous sign for Robb, who has refused to back away from the president despite his poor standing in Virginia.
What issues?
The Mason-Dixon poll also found voters were more concerned about character than any specific legislative issue. Here's what the voters say are the top five issues in the race - and the percentage citing each:
Character: 19%
Crime/drugs: 14%
Economy/jobs: 12%
Taxes/Government spending/deficit: 10%
Health care: 10%
At the bottom of the list: Gun control, the environment and social welfare issues, each cited by only 1 percent of those surveyed as the top issue in the race.
Simon weighs in
The national dimensions of Virginia's Senate race were underscored by a recent direct-mail letter signed by Illinois Sen. Paul Simon and sent to the former Democratic presidential candidate's supporters across the nation.
In an appeal for fellow Democrat Robb, Simon asked contributors to help stop North, whom he called "the darling of the nation's Radical Right."
Jeremy Karpatkin, Simon's chief of staff, acknowledged to the Chicago Tribune that Simon's fund-raising missive was motivated in part by a fear that if North were to gain a foothold in the Senate, he would be a powerful conduit for an array of conservative causes.
by CNB