Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, February 3, 1994 TAG: 9402030288
SECTION: CURRENT PAGE: NRV-1 EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY
SOURCE: By STEPHEN FOSTER STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
Figures released Wednesday show a drop of 1.5 percentage points from November to December in the New River Valley.
December's unemployment rate was 7.1 percent for the valley, down from 8.6 percent a month before, and 8.5 percent a year ago. The numbers are the lowest in four years in some places.
The jobless rates in some parts of the region, like Giles and Pulaski counties, fell more than two percentage points, according to the figures released by the Virginia Employment Commission.
"That's great," said Pulaski County Assistant County Administrator Peter Huber. "That's good news for us. I think we were particularly high; that may be why it dropped so much."
Pulaski's rate dropped from 10.7 percent to 8.5 percent.
Similar responses were heard from officials in other parts of the region.
"Any time you have information like that, it's a healthy sign," said Janet Tuckwiller, county administrator for Giles County, where the rate dropped from 9.5 percent to 7.3 percent.
In Montgomery County and Radford, the rate dropped from 7.3 percent to 6 percent, and 9.2 percent to 7.6 percent, respectively.
Most officials tempered their optimism, recognizing what the VEC says is a skewing factor in the numbers: December is historically the best month for unemployment, with a lot of seasonal jobs being temporarily created in retail sales.
Indeed, William Mezger, senior economist with the VEC, put it even more bluntly: "They're [the unemployment rates] going to go up in January and February. They always do," he said.
Jack Beason, job services manager with the commission's Radford office, said the numbers may jump as far as they fell - and then some.
Those retail jobs probably won't last, and the ongoing inclement weather around the area has been bad news for construction workers and others who make their livelihood outside. Their numbers will probably raise the unemployment rate in the next few months.
"January and February are historically the two months that have the highest unemployment," he said. "We're expecting it to go up."
His perspective also took into account the actual number of people who gained jobs during the last month of the year. A large precentage shift doesn't necessarily equate to a great number of workers with changed status, he said.
Across the valley in November, 6,378 people were unemployed, Beason said. In December, the number was 5,312. In relatively sparsely populated Giles, for example, the drop of 2.2 percentage points meant 178 workers had found jobs.
Conversely, in Floyd County, the only locality that experienced a jump in unemployment, 23 new people came to the VEC for benefits, he said. Unemployment rose from 8.5 percent to 8.7 percent there. Mezger attributed part of that to Floyd workers who travel to Martinsville and Henry County, where several plants furloughed their workers at the end of the year.
Mezger, in addition to mentioning seasonal employment, cited workers who were laid off as much as a year ago who may have left the area or stopped drawing unemployment benefits, as part of the reason for the low numbers. That essentially lowers the pool of people from which the statistics are drawn.
"At some point after the layoff, you just can't carry on indefinitely," Mezger said. He referred to the Radford Army Ammunition Plant layoff of more than 1,000 workers last January and March. The labor force for the valley is down slightly from a year ago.
Still, some plants have been hiring in the area, and few area companies furloughed their workers even temporarily at the end of the year, Mezger said. Those are solid signs.
And, for the moment at least, "everybody is looking good," Beason said.
by CNB