ROANOKE TIMES

                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: SUNDAY, June 12, 1994                   TAG: 9406140140
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A-1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Medium


PLANETARY PROGNOSIS YIELDS LITTLE GOOD NEWS, MORE BAD

The dream of a world where nuclear weapons disappear, light bulbs last for years, bicycles outsell cars and people live longer is coming true.

The good news, some of it surprising on a planet tainted by pollution and shaken by post-Cold War violence, is part of Worldwatch Institute's "Vital Signs 1994," released Saturday.

But overall, the planet is not doing so well, says Lester R. Brown, Worldwatch president and principal author of the compilation of trends.

"Of all the key indicators measuring the health of the planet, we have succeeded in reversing the decline in only one - namely, the manufacture and production of chlorofluorocarbons" that deplete the ozone layer, he said.

"All the other trends - carbon emission, deforestation, loss of species, population growth and soil erosion - are still headed in the wrong direction."

Some key signs in the compilation that bode ill for the world:

Birds are disappearing, with two-thirds of all species on the decline and 1,000 threatened with extinction.

Destructive insects are developing resistance to more and more poisons, with at least 17 species now unaffected by any insecticide on the market.

The sea is yielding about all the edible creatures it can, with the average available per person continuing to drop.

Grain stocks are at their lowest level since the mid-1970s, even though there are hundreds of millions more people to feed.

The loss of tropical rain forests is now exceeded by the loss of temperate forests extending far north of the equator.

The number of refugees is at a new high, 19 million, and world population continues to grow at alarming rates.

The HIV virus has now infected 22 million people, and 5 million have developed AIDS, with no cure in sight.

Even encouraging life-expectancy figures in the report have a downside.

Overall, life expectancy on the planet has gone from 46 years in 1950 to 65 years in 1993. Worldwatch credits increased food production, improved sanitation, expanded health care and successful childhood immunization programs for the fact that, on the average, world citizens can now expect to live 19 years longer than their grandparents.

But it notes that life expectancy in countries as diverse as Russia and Uganda is actually declining. The culprits include AIDS, hunger, cigarette smoking and pollution.

One of the most encouraging statistics is the reduction of nuclear weapons, from a high of 69,480 in 1986 to 49,910 in 1992. This is accompanied by a 63 percent decline in conventional weapons trade between 1987 and 1991, according to "Vital Signs."

Some of the most glowing statistics relate to the sale of energy-efficient, compact fluorescent light bulbs, from 132 million in 1992 to more than 200 million in 1993.

"They are saving the equivalent output of 18 coal-fired power plants," said David Roodman, a co-author of the report. The bulbs, dominant in Japan and increasingly popular in Europe and the United States, last 10 times longer and use one-fourth the electricity for the same amount of light.



 by CNB