Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: TUESDAY, July 26, 1994 TAG: 9407270034
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: By ROBIN WRIGHT and MICHAEL PARKS LOS ANGELES TIMES
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
The site: Madrid, where the peace process opened in 1991 and where American officials now hope it formally will close.
``It was launched in Madrid. This may well be the place to have everyone come back at the end for closure, for sanctification and for talks about what the future represents,'' said a senior Clinton administration official deeply involved in the negotiations.
But the road to Madrid 2 is full of potholes. The stunning breakthroughs over the past year - beginning with the Palestinian-Israeli declaration of last September - look easy in comparison to what lies ahead.
The next six to 12 months will be critical in what is likely to be a process of three to five years, U.S., Israeli and Arab officials agree.
The best- and worst-case scenarios already are visible.
``If everything goes according to schedule over the next year, then you'll see expanded autonomy for the Palestinians in the West Bank, a peace treaty with Jordan and a breakthrough with Syria'' that includes senior officials talking to each other about terms for full peace, said Ehud Sprinzak, a political scientist at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.
``The worst case,'' Sprinzak added, ``would be lots of distractions, violence and assassinations. The Palestinians could be in trouble because they don't have a good administration or enough money to make Gaza and Jericho work. Israeli settlers could become more militant. The Syrian track could stall. And fighting along the Lebanon border could get hotter.''
The overall goal is to maintain the momentum as the various efforts between Israel and its immediate neighbors are woven into a complete tapestry that will not unravel easily.
``Peace that is not comprehensive will be vulnerable to all sorts of disruptive forces,'' said Yair Hirschfeld, a political scientist at Haifa University who was pivotal last year in establishing secret Israeli-Palestinian talks in Oslo. ``In a way, it would be a dangerous peace.''
Further, both the United States and Israel face elections in 1996. As the election draws closer, Rabin particularly will lose his ability to maneuver.
Prospects for peace broken down by nations:
JORDAN: After Monday's signing with Israel of the declaration to speed up efforts to conclude economic and political agreements, the outlook for a full-fledged peace treaty appears promising.
On the eve of the signing, U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher and Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres predicted in identical language that a treaty is ``a matter of months.''
U.S. officials expect Monday's treaty to result in greater contact between Israelis and Jordanians. A day after the Jordanian and Israeli foreign ministers met at the Dead Sea last week, an Israeli company was advertising tours of Jordan in the Jerusalem Post.
PALESTINIANS: After the famous handshake 10 months ago between Rabin and Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat, the Israelis and Palestinians still must work out daunting issues. Among them: terms for expanding Palestinian autonomy into the West Bank; redeploying Israeli forces from Arab towns and Jewish settlements; and determining the timing and terms of elections.
``In less than a year, we went from almost zero contacts to negotiations that are continual,'' said Nabil Shaath, chief negotiator and planning minister of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and Jericho. ``Our ministers talk, our military talk, our police talk, our political leaders talk. It is a very, very intense relationship.''
Yet this track also holds the potential for slowing the peace process. Azi Shuebi, Palestinian minister of youth and sport, said Monday that Palestinian elections, originally expected in October, seem unlikely this year.
The potential also is growing for an Israeli backlash against Palestinian autonomy, particularly in places such as the West Bank town of Hebron, home to the most militant Jewish settlers.
SYRIA: This remains the biggest prize but also the biggest problem in the peace process and the most controversial step for Israel. All issues - notably how much peace for how much land and over what timetable - remain unsettled.
The most optimistic U.S. scenario envisions Christopher's shuttle diplomacy resulting in a breakthrough with Syria over the next six months, with a peace treaty next year.
Yet Israeli support for returning the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Middle East War, does not exceed 5 percent, according to a recent survey. Support for limited or partial withdrawal has risen from 35 percent to 45 percent in the past year, but the only deal Syrian President Hafez Assad says he will accept is total withdrawal.
LEBANON: Peace efforts have become largely a function of progress with Syria, which has a 40,000-man garrison in Lebanon.
Because Lebanon is Israel's most volatile neighbor, Israel wants a treaty that includes an end to attacks by Hezbollah and other extremist groups - six months after which it will withdraw from the southern Lebanese enclave it has dominated since the late 1970s.
The fragile state of Lebanon's government after a 15-year civil war will make enforcement of any agreement difficult.
THE REGION: For three months, Israel and most other Arab states have made quiet but substantive progress. Negotiators are preparing a study to identify projects to address the principal threats to peace: regional arms proliferation, radical groups, rapid population growth and socioeconomic instability.
U.S. officials also are optimistic because the five-part process has an indirect but critical component: a basis for peace.
``There is now a large amount of rationality and order and organization to solving the Arab-Israeli conflict,'' a U.S. official said. ``There are mechanisms in place to deal with each part of the process, involving not just the front-line states but the 14 regional states and 40 outside parties plus international institutions from the United Nations to the World Bank. This makes it very difficult to come undone.''
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