Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, August 1, 1994 TAG: 9408010076
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C3 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DWAYNE YANCEY STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
For Coleman, it was a news conference a day to stake out some position. Blasting the Environmental Protection Agency for overregulating car emissions in Northern Virginia. Needling President Clinton on Whitewater. Calling on Congress to just forget about health care reform this year.
And then there was Wilder, taking on all comers. Accusing Democratic incumbent Charles Robb of selling out to political action committees. Accusing Republican Oliver North of being soft on drug running during his Iran-Contra days. Accusing Coleman, and Republicans in general, of being part of the problem on health care.
So just where were the other candidates? North was tooling around the counties along the Chesapeake Bay in his Winnebago and stopping in at country stores. And Robb was, well, Robb was nowhere to be seen on the campaign trail - he was tending to his senatorial duties in Washington.
Get used to it.
There's a growing sense among political observers that the Senate race has separated into two tiers - with party nominees Robb and North the front-runners, and independents Coleman and Wilder struggling to find some way to attract attention, and money.
If that's right, Virginians can count on seeing Coleman and Wilder a lot this summer, as each tries to make a news splash big enough to generate an electoral tidal wave - while North and Robb quietly lay the groundwork for their fall campaigns.
``It's in Robb's and North's interest that the level of the campaign conflict wilt in the [summer] heat,'' says Emory & Henry College President Tom Morris, who's one of the state's most respected political analysts. ``They need a month off. It's the independents who are trying to see if they can get into this race.''
Which brings us to this week's ``Pundits on Parade,'' a first-ever double-header.
The secrets of the summer?
Our first question: Is any candidate doing things, or not doing things, this summer that aren't being reported but will end up making the difference in his campaign?
Harry Wilson, Roanoke College: ``Probably not. It's clear everybody is laying the groundwork of where they're going to go. They're attacking Robb because he's the front-runner. It has nothing to do with Chuck Robb. If Oliver North were the front-runner, you'd see three guys attacking him.
``What's going on, or not going on, now that's important for the rest of the year is fund-raising. The fact that Coleman and Wilder are having trouble rubbing two nickels together - if they can't raise money this summer, they can't get on the air this fall.''
Tom Morris, Emory & Henry College: ``It appears that North is doing a reasonably good job expanding his political base. He's obviously softening up his image, with the appearances he's making around the state, as well as his first two TV commercials. That's an indication he understands that his hard-core base is not sufficient to win, therefore he has to increase his likeability quotient.
``I think the debate at the Homestead [on July 16] was a reminder to the two party nominees that they have more to lose and less to gain in joint appearances - the poor showing Robb had and the difficulty North is finding in getting the spotlight in the debate. That probably means we'll have a limited number [of debates] in the fall, because they just give the independent candidates equal time, and therefore enhance their stature.''
Bob Holsworth, Virginia Commonwealth University: ``The one thing we don't know very much about is what kind of grass-roots organizations they're putting into place, and how are the independents going about this. If there's anything going unreported, it's the infrastructure of the campaign and what's happening at the grass roots. What everyone is trying to discern now is the outline of each campaign's strategy.''
Will Robb's strategy work?
This week's second question: Robb has made it clear he wants to run this campaign by being ``senatorial'' and remaining above the fray. So far, that's meant the other candidates have ganged up on him, and he refuses to hit back. Is that strategy going to work?
Wilson: ``It's hard to say if it's going to work, but I think it's probably a wise strategy. It's the best way for him to take advantage of his incumbency. We talk about when people run for president, the one thing the incumbent can do differently is be the president.
``The one thing Robb can do to demonstrate his fitness for the office is to be fit in the office. That's how he can differentiate himself.
``There potentially can be an advantage in talking about the issues, even when people disagree with you. If the other guys look really bad, people say `Gosh, this guy is at least talking issues.' I'd stick with it until it doesn't work anymore.''
Morris: ``No, I don't think it will.'' But Morris is betting Robb's strategy soon will change. ``You have to assume that, while he's not the most savvy politician to come along, the Homestead debate was a learning experience for him. The lesson was he has to be more aggressive in defending himself and turning the criticism back on the other candidates.''
Holsworth: ``I don't know. It's surprising to me that Robb is not trying to define the campaign more sharply as a two-person race between himself and North, because it seems to me it's in his interest. The more this becomes a four-way race, the more difficult it is for Robb, because Wilder and Coleman can gnaw away at his base. North is defining it as a three-way race, North against three lawyers, which is in North's interest.''
Keywords:
POLITICS
WANT TO GET INVOLVED?
HERE'S WHERE TO CALL TO FIND OUT MORE ABOUT EACH OF THE CAMPAIGNS:
NCOLEMAN: (703) 893-1994
NNORTH: (703) 802-6600
NROBB: (703) 790-9494
NWILDER: (804) 643-1781
IN THE FALL WE'LL LOOK BACK ON AND SAY THAT MADE
by CNB