Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, October 3, 1994 TAG: 9410040022
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: WARREN FISKE STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Long
Clinton, whom many analysts depict as the most unpopular president since Richard Nixon left the White House in disgrace in 1974, will try to jump start Robb's campaign by speaking at two fund-raising events that are expected to raise at least $500,000 for the senator.
Robb's eagerness to appear with Clinton, some analysts say, is an extraordinarily risky strategy that may play into the hands of Republican Oliver North. ``This isn't going to do a lot of good for Robb, and it could do a lot of harm,'' said pollster Brad Coker, president of Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. of Columbia, Md.
Only 36 percent of Virginia voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, according to a poll last month. In recent weeks, North has taken a slight lead in the polls after trying to frame the Senate race as a referendum on Clinton's policies. North has built almost every speech and television commercial around one fact: Robb has supported Clinton in 94 percent of his Senate votes.
``Bill Clinton and the Clinton administration policies are the central issue in this election,'' North said last week. ``If it wasn't for Bill Clinton and the disastrous consequences of what he's trying to do to this nation, I wouldn't even be in this race.''
Like North, Republican congressional challengers across the state and nation are defining their opponents by their voting percentages in support of Clinton. Democrats are ducking for cover.
Six of Virginia's seven Democratic congressmen said they will not attend tonight's fund-raiser. The seventh, Rep. James Moran, D-Alexandria, is keeping the option open.
``For whatever reason, the president has become radioactive,'' acknowledged Ken Geroe of Virginia Beach, vice chairman of the state Democratic Party. ``The degree of animosity directed toward this president is amazing.''
Across the nation, Clinton's approval ratings are only slightly higher than in Virginia. His point man in the House of Representatives, Speaker Tom Foley, D-Wash., is facing the toughest campaign of his 30-year career.
Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., is airing television commercials likening his voting record to Clinton's arch rival - Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas. Rep. Don Johnson, D-Ga., recently said that if Clinton comes into his district, ``I hope he campaigns for my Republican opponent.''
In contrast, Robb is one of only a handful of Democrats who has not sought to distance himself from the president. What can he possibly gain from Clinton's appearance?
The main thing is money. Clinton will speak at two events: a $35-a-head rally at the McLean Hilton Hotel at 7:45 p.m., and a $1,000-a-plate fund-raiser at the Sheraton Premiere Hotel. Despite his overall problems, Clinton remains a powerful dollar magnet among die-hard Democrats.
Robb needs the money if he is to compete with North in all-important television advertising during the final month of the campaign. Reports filed with the Federal Election Commission this summer showed North with more than a 3-to-1 fund-raising advantage over Robb.
``I really can't see any harm in this,'' Geroe said. ``The Republicans have already hung Clinton around Robb's neck, so why not pick up the good side and raise some money?''
Although many Republicans are gleeful about the president's appearance, Patrick McSweeney, chairman of the state GOP, is not. McSweeney said most of the voters who are decidedly anti-Clinton already are supporting North. Robb ``is doing exactly what I'd do'' by embracing Clinton, he said. ``If you continue to act like a problem doesn't exist, it only becomes more of a problem.''
Robb says it would be hypocritical to try to distance himself from Clinton after openly supporting some of the president's most controversial policies.
North portrays Robb as little more than a liberal Clinton clone who has abandoned the sentiments of most Virginians. Robb is trying to craft a more substantive image as a statesman who is willing to stand up to political heat and cast unpopular votes that are good for the country.
``I've taken the politically unpopular side when I stand up,'' Robb said. ``I can only hope that enough people respect me for my convictions, even if they don't agree with me.''
Robb's record of voting on the Clinton side 94 percent of the time last year ranked ninth-highest among the 54 Democrats in the Senate. Robb argues, however, that characterization of him as a knee-jerk Clinton supporter is inaccurate. Robb, a former governor, said his philosophy of government is that the ``chief executive should set the course, and the members of the legislative body should work with him.''
Robb notes that he also ranked high among Democrats in casting votes that supported the policies of former President Bush, a Republican, between 1989 and 1992. Records show Robb backed Bush more than 55 percent of the time and consistently ranked among the top five Senate Democrats in backing the former president.
The problem with Robb's explanation, many political analysts say, is that it does not lend itself to a sound bite during a year in which anti-Democratic sentiment has reached a fever pitch.
Robb's advisers insist that Clinton will not be a factor in the Nov. 2 Senate election. ``When people go to vote, they'll vote for the people running for that office, not someone else,'' said Susan Platt, Robb's campaign manager.
``That's wishful thinking,'' responded William Schneider, a political analyst for the American Enterprise Institute. ``Big trends have big causes. The only national issue out there this year is Bill Clinton.''
Schneider said Robb's decision to tie himself to Clinton was based on an assumption that there would be four viable candidates in the race. Robb ``miscalculated'' that he could win the race with only about 35 percent of the vote by locking up the die-hard Democratic vote in Virginia that supports Clinton, Schneider said.
What Robb did not foresee, Schneider said, is former Gov. Douglas Wilder abandoning his independent candidacy and independent Marshall Coleman failing to catch fire.
``The problem is that Virginia has turned into a two-way race,'' Schneider said. ``Robb has allowed it to become an anti-Clinton, anti-North contest. And in a race between a Clinton stand-in and North, North wins.''
Robb is promising to wage a more aggressive campaign in the final month, hoping to focus attention back on North. Strategists say they will try to paint North as a political extremist who rarely tells the truth.
North plans to continue pounding away on Clinton. The Republican smiled when asked if pictures of Robb embracing Clinton tonight might become fodder for his political ads.
``Let's just say I welcome the president to Virginia,'' he said. ``I hope he comes here often.''
Staff writer David M. Poole contributed to this story.
, such as a $243 billion tax increase, allowing avowed homosexuals in the armed forces, committing American troops to Haiti and closing military bases
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by CNB