Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, March 19, 1995 TAG: 9503200031
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-4 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium
This time, just landing punches won't be enough for Pat Buchanan.
The pugnacious conservative enters the 1996 presidential race Monday as a longer-than-longshot, up against better-financed, less controversial rivals and without the protest dynamic that helped him bruise President Bush in 1992.
``We clearly have to get over the credibility hump, and the only way to do that is by winning,'' Buchanan said in an interview. ``And we are going to surprise people and get some wins.''
That will be no easy task.
After his 37 percent showing in 1992 in New Hampshire, exit polls showed more than half of Buchanan's voters said they were sending a message to Bush, not voting for Buchanan because they believed he would be the better president.
And the TV commentator and columnist remains a highly controversial figure. A recent national survey by the Michigan polling firm EPIC-MRA recorded 45 percent of respondents with an unfavorable view of Buchanan while 30 percent had a favorable view.
Buchanan, a veteran of the Nixon, Ford and Reagan White House staffs, acknowledges the long odds. But the man who opened his 1992 campaign with the song ``We Will Rock You'' blaring in the background predicts the experts who label him little more than a fringe candidate are in for a surprise.
To defy the experts, Buchanan is counting on a strategy that invests heavily in courting conservative voters through the aggressive, issues-oriented coalitions that helped the Republican Party to its big victory in 1994. Atop his target list: Christian conservative groups, Catholics, gun-owners, advocates of term limits, Ross Perot voters and advocates of strict immigration reform.
``I have been a leader and spokesman for these movements, which are much larger than the Republican Party,'' Buchanan said. Still, while these groups applaud Buchanan's views, ``we need to convince them he is a viable candidate,'' acknowledges Guy Rodgers, a former top Christian Coalition official who is serving as Buchanan's campaign manager.
Buchanan hopes to broaden his conservative support by stressing that he was alone among the Republican candidates in vigorously opposing the NAFTA and GATT world trade agreements, on grounds they surrender U.S. sovereignty to international agencies. ``I am the only economic nationalist in the race,'' he says.
He will also revive one of his controversial 1992 proposals: to build ``the Buchanan fence'' along portions of the U.S.-Mexico border to stop illegal immigration. And he proposes a moratorium on legal immigration as well, ``so we can assimilate the 25 million people who have arrived here.''
Other provocative Buchanan proposals include ending foreign aid, limiting judges' terms and giving voters recall power over the judiciary. Like most of his GOP rivals, he would abolish the Education Department, and he supports abandoning the current income tax system in favor of a flat tax. Already, he is accusing House GOP leaders of selling out by failing to embrace true term limits, and says he will not be sparing in criticizing his own party.
Buchanan plans to compile his proposals and release them in a book this fall.
He acknowledges he won't be able to match the fund-raising pace of Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole or Texas GOP Sen. Phil Gramm. But Rodgers said raising $12 million to $15 million this year is within reach. Buchanan has a toll-free number (1-800-GO-PAT-GO), to accept contributions, and is counting on raising most of his funds through mailings to past conservative donors.
There is no shortage of skeptics.
``No,'' GOP strategist Eddie Mahe says quickly when asked if Buchanan has any chance of being the nominee. ``Absolutely not.''
In the view of Mahe and others, Buchanan is too controversial to have broad appeal. ``Our party is not isolationist so his views on trade will not sell,'' he said. ``He just does not reflect the philosophy of this party and the mainstream of this party.''
Buchanan also lags in early organizing.
``I haven't seen anything outside of a small hard-core group,'' says Tom Rath, a veteran New Hampshire GOP activist helping former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander.
But many Republicans say he could be a factor.
``With Dan Quayle out of the race and Gramm reluctant to talk about social issues, you can make the case that Buchanan will hurt Gramm by taking conservative votes,'' said Mahe. ``But I still don't think it will amount to much.''
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB