Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: WEDNESDAY, April 12, 1995 TAG: 9504120053
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-1 EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY
SOURCE: ALLISON BLAKE STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
New state figures lower the prediction to nearly 61,000 additional students by the year 2004. The change in the forecast from last fall comes because planners for the State Council of Higher Education in Virginia have obtained more reliable statistics, including more recent U.S. Census data, and conducted a more exhaustive study.
The projection is similar to those made in the late 1980s, when colleges and universities started planning for an influx.
``I think if [the estimate] had been 80,000, we would be looking at considerably more building,'' said Gordon Davies, director of the council, which met Tuesday at Hollins College.
Now, 293,165 full- and part-time students attend the state's public colleges and universities. Figures show that enrollment will increase by 18,000 by fall 1997.
The boost comes mostly from ``nontraditional'' students - those who are older, attending community college, attending part-time, or taking longer to get through school. New technologies, such as Old Dominion University's Teletechnet program, which beams courses throughout the state, also are boosting numbers.
``Senior colleges are looking at fairly conservative growth in first-time freshmen,'' said council statistician Michael Mullen.
Students graduating from high school, while a good indicator, comprise only 13 percent of incoming freshmen over the next nine years.
Virginia Tech's $12.2 million 1995-96 shortfall, driven partially by a drop of $3.6million in tuition from out-of-state students, arose as an example of the high price of unforeseen enrollment problems.
Tech's out-of-state students will pay $13,859 in tuition and fees next year. The school limited the increase to 3 percent, instead of the 7.5 percent allowed by law.
Davies said others in the state may have to do the same, until Virginia's out-of-state tuition prices come in line with those of other states.
``Arguably, what Virginia Tech has done is exactly what should be done,'' said Davies, saying the school has tried to maintain quality.
``They could have just opened the doors and taken a lot of students, and they would have had to live with that class for four years.''
But board member George Phillips said colleges and universities have to plan for the unexpected, including projections that change ``for reasons completely out of their control. They need to plan for that. We have a responsibility to help them move in that direction.''
After the meeting, Deputy Secretary of Education Steve Janosik commented on the enrollment projections, upon which colleges and universities will build their budgets for the next two years.
``Forecasting is not an exact science,'' he said. ``You just have to do the best you can. If you underestimate ... you deny access. If you overestimate, you've devoted resources to people who will not come.''
And higher education right now ``can't afford to do either.''
by CNB