THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Saturday, April 22, 1995 TAG: 9504220415
SECTION: SPORTS PAGE: C4 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY JIM DUCIBELLA, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Long : 109 lines
It was a simple question most 14-year-old boys never would have given a second thought.
Todd Swanner and a cousin were watching a football game involving Swanner's favorite team, the Miami Dolphins. The cousin suddenly asked a question about one of the players. Swanner didn't know the answer.
``Well,'' his cousin teased, ``how can you call yourself a Dolphins fan and not know something like that?''
Swanner decided that day he'd never be caught that way again. Within a year, he'd developed a keen interest in college football. But he never plotted the direction that one embarrassing moment would lead him 11 years later.
Swanner, 25, is a self-confessed draft nut. Proud of it, too. For the last three years, the Virginia Beach resident has taped college games, then watched them over and over and over - 50 times if necessary - looking for possible NFL draft picks.
But he doesn't just watch. He makes notes. He critiques. He writes reports, tucking them into a binder that eventually becomes Todd Swanner's Draft Report. It's a process he estimates takes 240 hours per year.
``Obviously, I can't do every player who's eligible to be drafted, like a Mel Kiper can, because I'm limited to what's shown on the weekends,'' Swanner said. ``So I go 10-deep, on average, at every position. Even that isn't easy. It's hard evaluating linebackers, safeties and wide receivers, because the TV cameras are kept on the quarterbacks. You don't get to see them do all the things you'd like to know about before you gave someone a rating.''
Swanner, who is married, has a son and a full-time job for a company that consults and trains investment professionals, would love to get a closer look at the subjects he rates; you know, become Todd Swanner, Draft Analyst.
He knows the arguments against him. He never played professional football, never coached it. But neither did Bobby Beathard of AFC champion San Diego. Neither did Washington Redskins general manager Charley Casserly. Neither did Kiper, the Draftniks' poster boy.
In 1992, Swanner sent his first packet of information to Kiper and Casserly. He phoned Kiper, who told him that he was off to a good start, but his best bet was to go for a scouting job. Casserly was less encouraging, though he offered to keep Swanner's material on file.
The following year, he sent an improved work-up of the 1993 draft to Tom Heckert, then Miami's head of college scouting, now the team's player personnel director. Heckert apparently liked what he saw, because he sent Swanner information about a scouting internship for the Dolphins. Swanner applied, but lost out to another candidate.
He recently completed this year's analysis and has sent copies to the Redskins, Chargers and Eagles.
``I'm at a stage in life where I want to make a career decision,'' he said. ``I'd like to be a writer and I'd like to get into scouting. And I'd really like to do something that would combine both.''
But the budding draft analyst doesn't follow Kiper's picks.
``I don't read his publication, or Ourlad's,'' he said, naming another popular draft service. ``I don't want to be influenced by them in any way. As much as it can be, this is my work.''
This weekend, Swanner will perch in front of the TV, right next to his list of draft-eligibles. The real test of successful draft prediction, he says, isn't picking where individual players will go. It's correctly predicting who will be chosen in each round.
As players are drafted, Swanner will strike them from his list, celebrate the ones he got right and wonder what went on in the minds of the GMs who dissent.
``I'm one of those people Bob Molinaro would joke as being one-dimensional,'' he says sheepishly. ``I'm into this, big-time. I admit it. I love it.'' MEMO: TODD SWANNER'S FIRST ROUND
1. Panthers: Ki-Jana Carter, RB, Penn State
2. Jaguars: Tony Boselli, OT, Southern Cal
3. Oilers: Michael Westbrook, WR, Colorado
4. Redskins: Warren Sapp, DT, Miami
5. Bengals: Kerry Collins, QB, Penn State
6. Rams: Kevin Carter, DE, Florida
7. Bucs: Mike Mamula, DE, Boston College
8. Seahawks: Joey Galloway, WR, Ohio State
9. Jets: Steve McNair, QB, Alcorn State
10. Browns: Tyrone Wheatley, RB, Michigan
11. Vikings: Ellis Johnson, DT, Florida
12. Eagles: Bobby Taylor, CB/S, Notre Dame
13. Saints: Reuben Brown, OT, Pitt
14. Bills: Korey Stringer, OT, Ohio State
15. Colts: Kyle Brady, TE, Penn State
16. Cardinals: J.J. Stokes, WR, UCLA
17. Giants: Luther Ellis, DT, Utah
18. Raiders: Hugh Douglas, DE, Central (Ohio) State
19. Chiefs: Brian DeMarco, OT, Michigan State
20. Lions: Blake Brockermeyer, OT, Texas
21. Bears: Derrick Alexander, DT, Florida State
22. Packers: Craig Newsome, CB, Arizona State
23. Patriots: Shawn King, DE, Northeast Louisiana
24. Vikings: Jimmy Hitchcock, CB, North Carolina
25. Dolphins: Steve Ingram, G, Maryland
26. Falcons: Damian Jeffries, DE, Alabama
27. Steelers: Barrett Brooks, OT, Kansas State
28. Cowboys: Matt O'Dwyer, G, Northwestern
29. Chargers: Tyrone Poole, CB, Fort Valley State
30. 49ers: Rashaan Salaam, RB, Colorado
31. Jaguars: Rob Johnson, QB, Southern Cal
32. Panthers: Zach Wiegert, G, Nebraska ILLUSTRATION: Photo by PAUL AIKEN, Staff
Todd Swanner of Virginia Beach tapes college football games to watch
for possible NFL draft picks.
by CNB