THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Wednesday, August 23, 1995 TAG: 9508220021
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A14 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Editorial
LENGTH: Medium: 56 lines
The 1996 presidential race is under way with a bizarre straw poll in Iowa. It proved little except that the Republicans need a candidate of stature.
Sen. Robert Dole of Kansas is supposed to be that man, but Dole is carrying heavy baggage. He has failed twice in tries for national office. He's long in the tooth and pure Washington.
In an anti-government era, Dole is the consummate insider. In a time of ideological heat, Dole has a record of cool compromise. Unlike Ronald Reagan, who could articulate the big picture, Dole is a nuts-and-bolts legislative mechanic who lacks ``the vision thing.''
As a result, Dole ended up in a tie for first with Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas. They split half the votes in the straw poll with 24 percent each. Pat Buchanan was third with 18 percent. Seven hapless candidates divided the remaining 33 percent of the straw vote.
Because the poll was open to anyone with $25 and time on his hands, even people bused in from outside the state, the results say more about organization and fervor than about the real nomination prospects ahead. But the straw poll does suggest Dole's organization can be bested and that his support is not so much fervid as tepid. As the least zealous candidate, he may be least likely to scare away independents and moderate Democratic voters. But to Republican true believers, that's a demerit.
Gramm excites Main Street economic conservatives. He's a one-note candidate advocating less government, lower taxes. Buchanan touches a chord with Republicans for whom social issues like abortion and immigration are paramount. Dole could wind up marginalized as the mouthpiece of country-club interests.
Those shorthand characterizations point to fissures in the Republican Party. The GOP is riding high now, but is divided against itself on important issues. Bill Clinton won the presidency because defectors from the Republicans' natural constituency chose outsider Ross Perot over the party's nominee.
The challenge for 1996 is to find a candidate who can keep a coalition of social conservatives, economic libertarians and big-business interests together long enough to defeat Clinton. Given his performance in office, this shouldn't be difficult. But Clinton presently leads all likely Republican nominees in the polls.
In their different ways, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan were able to unite a disparate party and even broaden its appeal. So far, neither Dole nor Gramm nor Buchanan has demonstrated a similar ability to bridge gaps or reach out. Indeed, all three are more divisive than unifying figures. Which is why the other seven dwarves are hanging around. The party has not yet found its 1996 nominee. by CNB