THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Monday, July 1, 1996 TAG: 9606290006
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A6 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Another View
SOURCE: BY JOHN GOOLRICK
LENGTH: 62 lines
The prevaling wisdom among political pundits is that Attorney General James Gilmore will be the Republican nominee for governor in 1997.
And the prevailing wisdom also seems to be that Gilmore will lose to Democratic nominee Lt. Gov. Don Beyer.
The prevailing wisdom, of course, is not infallible, as demonstrated in 1993 when everyone thought Mary Sue Terry was a shoo-in for governor.
But in retrospect, it is clear that Republican George Allen's election as chief executive that year came about through a combination of his own charisma and an electorate fed up with Democratic administrations.
Gilmore, who has a solid record as attorney general, would be ranked high by lawyers in talent but, incredible as it might sound, lawyers make up a very small part of the population.
The attorney general lacks the boyish charm that masks Allen's determination to punch out what he views as bloated government. And Gilmore will be called upon to defend a Republican administration whose combative style has not always earned it high marks with voters.
Governor Allen will undoubtly leave office with the best record in economic development of any chief executive in the state's history. His brilliant strategy of recruiting professionals like Bob Skunda and Wayne Sterling to tout the state as an East Coast silicon valley is paying big dividends.
It is too bad the administration did not follow the same formula of getting time-tested professionals to run some other state agencies instead of installing inexperienced people who had spent most of their time directing political campaigns. The truth is, spin doctoring in politics doesn't really qualify one to administer highly complex arms of state government.
In 1993, Allen probably got the votes of 80 percent of state employees. If he were running today, from all I have seen and observed, he would be lucky to get the votes of 20 percent of those employees. Gilmore is going to have to row the boat that Allen leaves for him and he will find some leaks that threaten to sink him.
That is, if Gilmore is the nominee. Some pessimists within the GOP ranks are making quiet overtures to others to seek the gubernatorial nomination. Among names mentioned are Rep. Tom Davis of Fairfax and Senator John Chichester of Stafford.
``Don Beyer can be beaten,'' said one party pro who wished to remain anonymous, ``but I'm not sure Jim Gilmore can do it because he's not a crowd pleaser.''
The same veteran political operative said, ``Don Beyer, like most Virginia Democrats, hasn't had a new idea in years. They're really brain dead and they depend on Republicans knocking each other out to stay in power.''
An aggressive campaigner, he suggested, could contend that Democrats like Beyer cater to all the interest groups who constantly advocate tax-and-spend policies. He thinks the Republican nominee must defend Allen's willingness to try new approaches, even if some of them did not work out, in an effort to reduce and revitalize state government.
But he, and others, are not persuaded that Gilmore has the chutzpah to do it. Gilmore's immediate task is to convince members of this own party that he has some game plan to take on Beyer and beat him in November 1997. Until he does, there are going to be lingering doubts among the GOP constituency. MEMO: John Goolrick, a former political reporter, is an aide to Rep.
Herbert Bateman. Opinions expressed are his own. by CNB