THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1997, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Friday, February 21, 1997 TAG: 9702210823
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: D1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY LON WAGNER, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: 58 lines
It's been almost three years since the College of William and Mary's economic report died because its funding dried up.
But Thursday the College's Bureau of Business Research made a comeback, issuing a report called ``Virginia Outlook.'' It's a reincarnation of Virginia Business Report, which was published monthly from 1959 to May 1994.
``We're back on the scene and very glad of it,'' said Roy L. Pearson, director of the Bureau of Business Research.
The new report will come out three times a year, instead of monthly. But the bureau will release four other reports that will serve as updates and focus on topics of specific interest.
One of the interim reports, for example, may examine the pros and cons of sales taxes and personal property taxes.
``Virginia Outlook'' will place less emphasis on retail businesses, and will focus more on jobs, particularly on the competition for manufacturing jobs and the growth of the service sector. Pearson said the report will be a resource for small-business owners.
``The larger businesses will subscribe to the national forecasting services or will have their own in-house economists,''he said. ``The small business owner usually doesn't have the time or find it useful to put the resources into it.''
Pearson, an oft-cited authority on the Hampton Roads economy, is considered one of the state's top economists. He is among 10 advisers on Gov. George F. Allen's economic forecasting board.
Pearson's report came out just in time to predict good news for the next couple of years. The number of jobs in Hampton Roads should grow by 1.6 percent in 1997 and 1998, compared with a paltry 0.5 percent rate last year, the report said. Statewide, the number of jobs should grow at about the same pace.
``There is continued downsizing in the federal government,'' Pearson said, ``so matching the state on that job growth is going to be quite an accomplishment.''
Helping with that growth should be an improvement in Hampton Roads' service sector, which posted anemic growth of 0.6 percent last year. Service sector growth should rebound to 1.9 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 1998, the bureau forecasts.
Manufacturing jobs could begin posting year-to-year gains in mid-1997, Pearson said, due to some growth in high technology manufacturing and spinoffs from Jefferson Labs.
All of Hampton Roads could see significant improvement in its tourism-related businesses. Pearson called 1996 ``The Year of the Plane'' because a lot of tourists took big vacations. Much of Williamsburg's tourist spending, as well as in Virginia Beach, still comes from people traveling by car, he said.
Lodging and restaurant receipts dropped more than 3 percent on the Peninsula last year, partly due to the Olympics in Atlanta.
``The people who come this year we feel will be spending more and probably staying longer,'' he said.
``At least when they're here they'll be going out to dinner rather than staying in and watching track and field.''