DATE: Monday, November 3, 1997              TAG: 9711030228

SECTION: LOCAL                   PAGE: B8   EDITION: FINAL 

TYPE: Editorial 

                                            LENGTH:   48 lines

SADDAM HE'S BAAACK!

Saddam Hussein has been largely out of sight for the past several years, but recent events suggest he's still out of his mind. The United States and the United Nations can't afford to relax their guard.

As memories of the Persian Gulf war have faded, we've perhaps become complacent about Saddam. That would be a mistake.

Last time, he and his government claimed they weren't moving troops when they were. They claimed they had no aggressive designs when they did. They claimed to have no weapons of mass destruction when a crash program was under way to develop them.

Today they claim to pose no threat to their neighbors' oil or lives. Maybe not militarily - yet. But Saddam can be as crazy as a fox politically.

He is a master at wrapping himself in Arab sentiment when trying to squirm out of sanctions imposed by the United Nations. Experts believe that few Arab nations would join a crusade against Saddam today. And even Western allies who believe Saddam must be contained don't favor using force to do it. Fear of doing anything that might disrupt the flow of Mideast oil helps account for the timorousness.

Saddam is clearly counting on that as he tries to get out of the box. And it could work. In his attempt to exclude U.S. members from a U.N. inspection team, Arab states have spoken in favor of Saddam and against the West.

In part that's because he has won the public-relations battle by crying crocodile tears about the suffering of the Iraqi people. But painful sanctions wouldn't remain in force if Saddam would comply with U.N. strictures imposed as the price of peace. His choice.

Last week, Iraq was far from considering compliance. With familiar braggadocio, an Iraqi spokesman said his country was willing to provoke a military confrontation: ``(W)e would not be scared of this option and will not back down. . . .'' Saddam has always been prepared to fight to the last drop of someone else's blood.

From the reaction, it isn't clear that American diplomacy has succeeded in keeping support for sanctions strong. Yet even if the Persian Gulf war coalition was a one-time thing, the need to contain Saddam continues.

If he wriggles free, he's capable of causing regional mischief again. If Arab states opt out of the process and Western allies waver, the consequences could be ugly.

Yet Saddam clearly can't be permitted to call the shots. The failure to cut off the snake's head in 1991 necessitates a continuing, vigilant effort to keep him defanged.

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