Type of Document	Master's Thesis
Author	Easterbrook, Richard Brian
URN	etd-032799-154323
Title	Predictive Probability Model for American Civil War Fortifications using a Geographic Information System
Degree	Master of Science
Department	Geography
Advisory Committee	Advisor Name Title Crandall Shifflett Committee Member James Campbell Committee Member Laurence W. Carstensen Jr. Committee Member
Keywords	geographic information systems logistic regression civil war
Date of Defense	1999-02-26
Availability	unrestricted
Abstract Predictive models have established a niche in the field of archaeology. Valued as tools in predicting potential archaeological sites, their use has increased with development of faster and more affordable computer technology. Predictive models highlight areas within a landscape where archaeological sites have a high probability of occurrence. Therefore, time and resources normally expended on archaeological exploration can then be more efficiently allocated to specified locations within a study area. In addition to the resulting predictive surface, these models also identify significant variables for site selection by prehistoric or historic groups. Relationships with the environment, whether natural or social, are extremely pertinent to strengthening the resource base. In turn, this information can be utilized to better interpret and protect valuable cultural resources. A predictive probability model was generated to locate Union Civil War fortifications around Petersburg, Virginia. This study illustrated the ease with which such analysis can be accomplished with the integrated use of a Geographic Information System with statistical analysis. Stepwise logistic regression proved effective in selecting significant independent variables to predict probabilities of fortifications within the study area, but faired poorly when applied to areas withheld from the initial building stage of the model. Variation of battle tactics between these two separate areas proved great enough to have a detrimental effect the model's effectiveness.
Files	Filename       Size       Approximate Download Time (Hours:Minutes:Seconds)     28.8 Modem   56K Modem   ISDN (64 Kb)   ISDN (128 Kb)   Higher-speed Access    Abstract.PDF 6.41 Kb 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01   Acknow.PDF 4.12 Kb 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01   Appendix.PDF 27.63 Kb 00:00:07 00:00:03 00:00:03 00:00:01 < 00:00:01   aspect.PDF 120.29 Kb 00:00:33 00:00:17 00:00:15 00:00:07 < 00:00:01   cfort_dist.PDF 46.14 Kb 00:00:12 00:00:06 00:00:05 00:00:02 < 00:00:01   Chptr_1.PDF 45.96 Kb 00:00:12 00:00:06 00:00:05 00:00:02 < 00:00:01   Chptr_2.PDF 34.06 Kb 00:00:09 00:00:04 00:00:04 00:00:02 < 00:00:01   Chptr_3.PDF 121.98 Kb 00:00:33 00:00:17 00:00:15 00:00:07 < 00:00:01   Chptr_4.PDF 81.66 Kb 00:00:22 00:00:11 00:00:10 00:00:05 < 00:00:01   Chptr_5.PDF 9.21 Kb 00:00:02 00:00:01 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01   Cited.PDF 12.72 Kb 00:00:03 00:00:01 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01   cmain_dist.PDF 41.37 Kb 00:00:11 00:00:05 00:00:05 00:00:02 < 00:00:01   Contents.PDF 7.79 Kb 00:00:02 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01   con_vis.pdf 60.21 Kb 00:00:16 00:00:08 00:00:07 00:00:03 < 00:00:01   dimmock.pdf 343.87 Kb 00:01:35 00:00:49 00:00:42 00:00:21 00:00:01   elevation.PDF 91.42 Kb 00:00:25 00:00:13 00:00:11 00:00:05 < 00:00:01   Epigraph.PDF 4.57 Kb 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01   extent.PDF 476.66 Kb 00:02:12 00:01:08 00:00:59 00:00:29 00:00:02   fed_line.pdf 445.69 Kb 00:02:03 00:01:03 00:00:55 00:00:27 00:00:02   fort_vis.pdf 54.69 Kb 00:00:15 00:00:07 00:00:06 00:00:03 < 00:00:01   Illust.pdf 8.01 Kb 00:00:02 00:00:01 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01   image2.PDF 423.02 Kb 00:01:57 00:01:00 00:00:52 00:00:26 00:00:02   map_ext.PDF 5.67 Kb 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01   pred_site2.PDF 57.76 Kb 00:00:16 00:00:08 00:00:07 00:00:03 < 00:00:01   pred_surf.PDF 69.36 Kb 00:00:19 00:00:09 00:00:08 00:00:04 < 00:00:01   rail_dist.PDF 53.56 Kb 00:00:14 00:00:07 00:00:06 00:00:03 < 00:00:01   road_dist.PDF 101.06 Kb 00:00:28 00:00:14 00:00:12 00:00:06 < 00:00:01   site.PDF 25.32 Kb 00:00:07 00:00:03 00:00:03 00:00:01 < 00:00:01   site_map.PDF 59.21 Kb 00:00:16 00:00:08 00:00:07 00:00:03 < 00:00:01   site_map2.PDF 30.28 Kb 00:00:08 00:00:04 00:00:03 00:00:01 < 00:00:01   slope.PDF 111.88 Kb 00:00:31 00:00:15 00:00:13 00:00:06 < 00:00:01   state.pdf 11.98 Kb 00:00:03 00:00:01 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01   strc_dist.PDF 66.77 Kb 00:00:18 00:00:09 00:00:08 00:00:04 < 00:00:01   Tables.pdf 5.05 Kb 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01   Title.PDF 14.81 Kb 00:00:04 00:00:02 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01   Vita.PDF 5.18 Kb 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01 < 00:00:01   water_dist.PDF 317.45 Kb 00:01:28 00:00:45 00:00:39 00:00:19 00:00:01

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