Public policy and program implementation has come to
be regarded as a significant problem area in the governance
process. Research has provided insights but falls short of
totally satisfactory prescriptions for operational success.
The literature on policy and program implementation
reflects a dichotomy of means between centralized control
and delegation of substantial discretionary authority. The
resulting theory leaves a gap with practice. Scenario
writing is one of the techniques available to practitioners
that might be employed to assist in the execution of their
responsibilities. Scenarios can be useful tools, but their
preparation is costly and time consuming. It was
hypothesized that computer modeling techniques and
artificial intelligence could be applied to scenario
generation to create an effective, practical instrument to
permit wider and more effective use of scenarios for
planning and management. A computer supported procedure is
presented for generating scenarios which describe
alternative sequences of future events for a given situation and proposed policy. The generator design
reflects a three-way compromise between processing
flexibility, data-base structure, and user workload
requirements. This prototype generator was subjected to
exploratory trials. The lessons learned highlight some
potentially valuable program improvements, the importance
of focusing the scenario at a level useful to the reader,
and the need for a common set of definitions.
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