Type of Document Master's Thesis Author Criniti, James Ralph URN etd-06102012-040446 Title A probabilistic model for estimating demand for selected existing rural community hospitals that may be facing closure in West Virginia Degree Master of Science Department Health and Physical Education Advisory Committee
Advisor Name Title Redican, Kerry J. Committee Chair Baffi, Charles R. Committee Member Bohland, James R. Committee Member Keywords
- Health planning
Date of Defense 1989-12-15 Availability restricted AbstractA wide range of people are interested in how local
factors influence patient choice among hospitals.
Administrators need to know why patients are admitted to their
hospitals so they can develop more sophisticated marketing of
their services in an increasingly competitive environment.
Planners concerned with issues of patient accessibility need
know the geographic patterns of hospital use To meet
these needs, it becomes necessary to develop methods to
estimate the probability that patients will be admitted to a
particular hospital using models that incorporate location and
size of competing hospitals.
In this paper, the focus of econometric investigation
and prediction is the probability that a patient will select
e particular hospital. Four different service areas were
delineated and studied in West Virginia to test the Huff
Consumer Spatial Behavior model for estimating demand at four
hospitals that may be facing closure. It was found that
through application of the Huff model that in a small system
of hospitals and patients, each patient location (i.e., zip
code) will send patients to nearly every hospital. The model predicted sufficient demand for two of the four hospitals
studied. Conventional methodologies were then compared to the
Huff model. The model did not test for financial feasibility
of any of the facilities nor did the model adequately address
the issue of how patients select a particular facility.
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