Type of Document	Master's Thesis
Author	Stubblebine, Michael A.
Author's Email Address	stubblebinema@cs.com
URN	etd-08312002-195807
Title	An Empirical Test of the Real Interest Rate in Germany, 1970-2000
Degree	Master of Arts
Department	Economics
Advisory Committee	Advisor Name Title Roger N. Waud Committee Chair Richard Theroux Committee Member Thomas J. Lutton Committee Member
Keywords	central bank monetary policy
Date of Defense	2002-07-17
Availability	unrestricted
Abstract This thesis is a empirical test of the constancy of the real rate of interest in Germany over the period of 1970 to 2000. The methodology, based on Mishkin (1981), employs Ordinary Least Squares regressions to search for correlation in movements of real rates with lagged inflation, time trends, and ten other variables that commonly appear in the literature. Overall results reject the hypothesis of the constancy of the real rate. The Fisher Effect (Fisher, 1930), that movements in nominal interest rates reflect changes in expected inflation, is found to be only moderate for Germany. The monetary policy implication is that nominal interest rates contain little information about real interest rates and therefore on the tightness of monetary policy. Overall lack of significance in the test results may (as Mishkin found) be because there is so little variation in real rate movements.
Files	Filename       Size       Approximate Download Time (Hours:Minutes:Seconds)     28.8 Modem   56K Modem   ISDN (64 Kb)   ISDN (128 Kb)   Higher-speed Access    01EcoThesFinal31Aug02MainBodyPart1.pdf 126.95 Kb 00:00:35 00:00:18 00:00:15 00:00:07 < 00:00:01   02EcoThes31Aug02Table1.pdf 42.61 Kb 00:00:11 00:00:06 00:00:05 00:00:02 < 00:00:01   03EcoThes31Aug02Table2.pdf 46.33 Kb 00:00:12 00:00:06 00:00:05 00:00:02 < 00:00:01   04EcoThes31Aug02Table3.pdf 40.32 Kb 00:00:11 00:00:05 00:00:05 00:00:02 < 00:00:01   05EcoThes31Aug02Table3a.pdf 40.37 Kb 00:00:11 00:00:05 00:00:05 00:00:02 < 00:00:01   06EcoThes31Aug02Table4.pdf 46.24 Kb 00:00:12 00:00:06 00:00:05 00:00:02 < 00:00:01   07EcoThes31Aug02Table5.pdf 40.79 Kb 00:00:11 00:00:05 00:00:05 00:00:02 < 00:00:01   08EcoThes31Aug02Table5a.pdf 40.38 Kb 00:00:11 00:00:05 00:00:05 00:00:02 < 00:00:01   09EcoThesFinal31Aug02Figs1-6Part2.pdf 105.05 Kb 00:00:29 00:00:15 00:00:13 00:00:06 < 00:00:01   10EcoThesFinal31Aug02AppenBiblioVitaPart3.pdf 90.58 Kb 00:00:25 00:00:12 00:00:11 00:00:05 < 00:00:01

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