Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, March 11, 1990 TAG: 9003112599
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: D-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: RANDOLPH E. SCHMID ASSOCIATED PRESS
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Long
Both suitor and statistician think they already know some of the answers. But, inevitably, both will hear things they didn't expect.
"There were some surprises in 1980 and we also expect some surprises in 1990," says William Butz, associate director of the Census Bureau.
"There are things we think are happening but, come the '90 census, we'll find that some of that is wrong," Butz said.
Census Day is set for April 1, and months of effort will follow in compiling and analyzing the numbers.
While the Census Bureau takes a national head count only once every 10 years, it is constantly taking sample surveys and has a pretty good idea of what's going on with the nation's quarter-billion people.
The 1990 census will find not only a bigger population than in 1980, but one that is different in many ways.
Americans are older, live in different places, have a larger ethnic component and have changed socially and economically in the last decade.
Anticipating what the April count will find, here's a look at the Census Bureau's most recent estimates:
\ How many: The U.S. population was estimated at 249.6 million as of Jan. 1 and should be close to 250 million by April 1, up from 226.5 million in 1980.
The first census, in 1790, counted 3.9 million people. That's just slightly more than now live in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
\ Who: Hispanics make up a much larger portion of the American pie, having increased to more than 20 million people in recent years. Hispanics now account for 8.4 percent of the population, up from 6.4 percent in the 1980 census.
That means the Hispanic population is growing faster than the general population.
"Immigration accounted for about half of the overall gain," said Carmen DeNavas of the Census Bureau. "Since 1982, the Central and South American population here has grown 67 percent."
The location and characteristics of immigrants will be of interest this time, Butz said.
The nation's racial breakdown also is changing.
In 1980, 85.9 percent of Americans were white, 11.7 percent were black and 2.3 percent were Asian or members of other races.
Estimates for 1990 anticipate the white share will be down to 84.2 percent, with blacks up to 12.4 percent and Asians and others rising to 3.4 percent.
The 1980s appear to be the first decade in at least 100 years in which more blacks moved to the South than left it, and the census hopes to learn more about that trend, Butz said.
Getting an accurate counting of minorities is an important effort this time, since studies of the 1980 census concluded blacks were missed more often than whites.
\ Families: Families including a married couple account for just 56 percent of all households, down from 61 percent in 1980 and 70 percent in 1970, reflecting the growth in single people and one-parent families.
Family size also has been declining as people have fewer children. In 1980 there were 79 youths aged 18 and under for every 100 families. By 1989 that was down to 69.
The 1990 count may find the decline in births is easing, however, as women who put off having families to complete schooling and start careers decide to have children.
"We are seeing significant changes in the number of women in their 30s having children. Women are postponing their first births and opting for more education and more time in the labor force," says Amara Bachu, a Census Bureau statistician.
\ Stepchildren: The growth of single-parent families stemming from divorce also has allowed for more remarriages. Hence, the number of stepchildren grew to 6.8 million by 1985, up 15 percent from 1980. It it expected to be even higher in 1990.
Historically there have been far fewer children in one-parent homes, with more of those children in homes headed by a widowed, rather than divorced, parent, says Arlene Saluter of the Census Bureau.
\ Wives: Wives' earnings were increasing at twice the rate of husbands' in the 1980s. But wives still earn half of what their husbands bring home.
From 1980 to 1987, wives' earnings rose 23 percent, compared to a 12 percent growth for their husbands. But wives still averaged $13,250, compared to $29,150 for their husbands.
\ Where: The nation's center of population is continuing its trek south and west. The mythical point where the nation could balance if everyone weighed the same crossed the Mississippi River in 1980, winding up in Missouri.
Since then the Sun Belt states have continued to lead the nation in growth. In the 1980s, California added 4 million people, the most of any state. Indeed, California, Texas and Florida accounted for half the national growth in the decade.
\ How old: The nation continues to age as the giant post-World War II baby boom generation matures.
The median age of the United States hit 30 in 1980, grew to 32.1 by 1987 and will be even higher when the 1990 count is complete. Median means that half of all Americans are older than that age and half younger.
\ Cities: In addition to moving to the South and the West, Americans have been concentrating growth in metropolitan areas in the 1980s, in contrast to the 1970s, when rural areas experienced a boom.
The result has been city growth in the Sun Belt, with places such as San Diego; Jacksonville, Fla.; and San Jose, Calif., moving up the list of biggest cities.
\ Education: Americans are better educated than ever before, thanks largely to the educational efforts of the baby boom generation.
The 1990 census is expected to show 77.7 percent of men and 76.9 percent of women aged 25 and over have completed high school and 21.9 percent of men and 15.6 percent of women are college graduates, American Demographics magazine says.
By contrast, in 1980, 67.7 percent of men were high school grads and 20.3 percent had finished college. For women, the 66.2 percent had finished high school and 12.9 percent held college degrees.
But those gains may not continue.
"Men aged 25 to 34 are now less likely to have completed college than were the baby boomers 10 years ago. The high cost of education may be pushing young adults out of college and into the work force," say researchers Judith Waldrop and Thomas Exter.
\ Homeless: The 1990 census will count people "in shelters, on the streets and in halfway houses," says the bureau's Peter Bounpane. With estimates of the number of homeless ranging from 300,000 to 3 million, the bureau hopes to produce a reasonably accurate estimate of these people for the first time.
by CNB