Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, March 25, 1990 TAG: 9003251905
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: ROB EURE POLITICAL WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
Western Virginia's three Democratic congressmen have no declared opposition to date. Of them, only 6th District Rep. Jim Olin of Roanoke has any real chance of drawing an opponent.
After the intense races in 1988 for president and 1989 for governor, both parties appear willing to take a breather on most races this year.
"Our people have gone flat-out two years in a row," said Joe Elton, executive director of the Virginia GOP.
He said party workers are ready for a break, especially after losing the governor's campaign to Democrat Douglas Wilder by less than 0.5 percent of the vote last year.
Besides Warner, all 10 of Virginia's congressmen are running for re-election. The advantages of incumbency, which have given members of Congress a 98 percent re-election rate in recent years, are scaring off potential challengers in both parties.
Political observers are not betting Virginia's delegation of five Democrats and five Republicans in the House of Representatives will change.
Several potential candidates are considering a challenge to Olin, but time is running out to organize and finance a serious race, according to leaders of both parties.
"Anyone who wants to bring a campaign organization together, line up support within the party and raise enough money for a serious challenge faces some very immediate deadlines," Elton said. "That's true in both parties. Where that isn't happening already, people are writing challenges off."
Sixth District Republican Chairman Don Duncan still is hopeful that one of the potential rivals to Olin will decide to make the race.
One of those is Willis Anderson, a former Democratic state delegate and mayor of Roanoke who lost the nomination to Olin in 1982 and has since become a Republican.
Anderson, who also ran for Congress as a Democrat in the early 1970s against Roanoke Republican Caldwell Butler, said last week he is "on the list of those certainly considering" a race against Olin this fall. Anderson said he will decide by early next month.
Another potential candidate is John Beard, a Roanoke developer who has said for several years he is interested in a race for Congress.
Duncan said last week the party has a 50-50 chance of fielding an opponent against Olin.
The four-term incumbent, meanwhile, has been preparing for a challenge with fund-raising events in Roanoke and Lynchburg. More are planned in Harrisonburg and Washington.
Olin trounced his last two rivals, including Lynchburg Republican Charles Judd, who lost by 28 points in 1988. He "will be prepared for any serious challenger," said Olin's press secretary, Jim Fox.
Judd announced earlier this month that he would not challenge Olin again. State Del. Emmett Hanger, a Republican from Augusta County, considered running but now says he is doubtful.
In the 5th Congressional District, Democrat L.F. Payne of Nelson County appears to be headed for his second full term in Washington, unopposed. Although Payne represents a conservative population in Southside Virginia that consistently gives Republicans majorities at the state and national level, no candidate wants to take him on this year.
"You'd almost have to be crazy to try it now," said 5th District Republican Chairman Don Moseley.
Republican challengers would have a difficult time motivating supporters in a mid-term election with a Republican president, Moseley said. Those elections generally are more favorable to the party out of the White House.
Moreover, he and other Republican leaders cite next year's redistricting, when the Democrat-controlled state legislature will redraw congressional district lines. The Democrats could pay back a successful Republican challenger with a new, more difficult district, Moseley said.
Rep. Rick Boucher, D-Abingdon, likewise is without a challenger so far in the 9th Congressional District. Elton said he has heard of no serious candidates considering a race against Boucher this year.
"In several districts, there are people who are interested, but they think 1992 will be a better year," Elton said. "If we had George Bush, and his 80 percent approval rating on the ballot, I could guarantee you candidates."
Although Democratic challengers do not face a backlash from redistricting, other factors make it difficult to recruit Democratic challengers against GOP incumbents, said Virginia Democratic Party Chairman Paul Goldman.
"Incumbents are entrenched, and one reason is because of the cost of campaigning," Goldman said.
Elton estimated that the price of a serious campaign against an incumbent "is getting close to $500,000."
Moreover, a challenger will have to raise most of that money outside of the major financing machine for incumbents - political action committees. Those groups, representing nearly every imaginable special interest, will "almost automatically contribute $250,000 to any incumbent, but only $30,000 to $50,000 to most challengers," Elton said.
Potentially, the closest congressional race in the state will be in the 8th District in Northern Virginia, Elton and Goldman say.
Rep. Stan Parris, a Fairfax County Republican who made an unsuccessful bid for the GOP nomination for governor last year, faces a challenge from Jim Moran, the mayor of Alexandria.
Parris, who has sought the Republican nomination for governor since 1985, already has begun assembling a team to run his gubernatorial bid in 1993. In Congress, he is known for his criticism of the District of Columbia, a theme that has proved popular in his suburban district.
"Stan runs for governor and bashes the District of Columbia. It's no wonder he doesn't have time to be a congressman," Goldman said, indicating that Moran will likely try to paint Parris as being interested in serving in Congress only to maintain a statewide platform.
In the 3rd Congressional District around Richmond, Democrat Jay Starke, a longtime Democratic activist, is challenging Republican Rep. Tom Bliley.
Goldman admits that Starke is an underdog to unseat Bliley in a strong Republican district.
by CNB