
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: WEDNESDAY, April 18, 1990                   TAG: 9004180394
SECTION: VIRGINIA                    PAGE: B3   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: DANIEL HOWES HIGHER EDUCATION WRITER
DATELINE: BLACKSBURG                                LENGTH: Medium

SOVIET OFFICIAL WARNS OF DICTATORSHIP RISK/ TECH STUDENTS HEAR GENNADY

The architects of political and economic re Gerasimov form in the Soviet Union, besieged by disgruntled consumers and restive citizens in Lithuania and elsewhere, will usher in a new dictatorship if they cannot avert a split among their supporters, a Soviet official warned Tuesday.

The coalition between those impatient with the pace of reform and those - such as President Mikhail Gorbachev - who want to modify the system and make it more productive could be torn apart, breathing new life into the conservatives "who want to return to things as they were in the years of so-called `stagnation,' " said Gennady Gerasimov, chief spokesman for the Soviet Foreign Ministry.

"Perestroika created great expectations. Everybody knew the situation was ripe for perestroika," he said in a lecture at Virginia Tech. "If Gorbachev didn't exist, he would have to be created."

But those expectations also created disappointments, and unleashed subdued nationalism and ethnic strife that threaten the stability of the entire Soviet system.

Lithuanians, despite their declaration of independence, are grateful for the loosened political and economic controls of perestroika, Gerasimov said, calling the change an "open window."

"Instead of enjoying the vision in this window, they jumped out of it," he said, eliciting chuckles from the some 3,000 people gathered in Burruss Hall.

Drawing a parallel between Abraham Lincoln and Gorbachev, Gerasimov said the Soviet president wants to save the union of republics. "He's saying to them, `If you want to go, go. But make haste slowly. Follow the rule of law.' "

Last month, Lithuania declared its independence from the Soviet Union, which annexed the Baltic republics in 1940. Secession from the union would take some five years and require a referendum.

Separatist struggles and ethnic conflict - such as the ongoing battles between Christian Armenians and Moslem Azeris - embolden Gorbachev's critics, Gerasimov said, endangering perestroika.

Economic restructuring is hampered further by the absence of a legal system that would enable Soviet officials to apply reforms. The Soviet ruble is inconvertible, for example, creating a price structure that is "entirely artificial," he said.

Admitting that much of Soviet international behavior was infused with "too much ideology," Gerasimov said, "It took a little time for us to understand that other nations don't want to cross to our side of the street."

And while economic reforms may be faltering inside the Soviet Union, Gerasimov pronounced perestroika a success in the international arena: better U.S.-Soviet relations, continuing arms control talks, a "buried" Cold War, ongoing discussions on regional conflicts and normalization of Sino-Soviet relations.

by CNB