Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, May 20, 1990 TAG: 9005200257
SECTION: HORIZON PAGE: F1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Michael Oreskes The New York Times
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Long
Some Republicans are even hoping and some Democrats are worrying that Republicans have a chance to retake the Senate, where Democrats hold 55 seats to the Republicans' 45.
But most analysts predict a gain of two or three seats by Republicans this year, with the showdown for control coming in 1992.
"The Democrats are talking about holding down their losses, Vice President Dan Quayle told a group of Republican state chairmen the other day. " If we don't get a majority, perhaps we can get a 50-50 split. And I wouldn't mind spending the next two years of my life casting every tie-breaking vote for President Bush."
Less partisan analysts predict less sweeping, but still important, changes.
Two well-known monitors of congressional races, Charles Cook and Stewart Rothenberg, each of whom edits a political newsletter, both predict Republican gains in the Senate of one to four seats, in large part because of the party's unusually successful recruiting of strong candidates.
Such gains could have an important impact on the Senate, where Sen. George Mitchell, the Democratic leader, already has to operate with a margin that is less than overwhelming.
The most vulnerable Democratic senators, politicians generally believe, are Claiborne Pell of Rhode Island, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, Paul Simon of Illinois, Tom Harkin of Iowa, Carl Levin of Michigan and James Exon of Nebraska.
In addition, the death of Spark Matsunaga, D-Hawaii, last month has created another opportunity for Republicans.
One of the state's most popular Republicans, Rep. Patricia Saiki of Honolulu, is expected to run for the seat this fall and is given a good chance, despite the state's Democratic leanings.
Rep. Daniel Akaka has been named the interim senator and is expected to be the party's candidate this fall.
President Bush urged Saiki to run and has promised to help.
Democrats concede they are on the defensive and that their goal is simply to hold their majority.
They insist there are several states where Republicans are vulnerable, although independent analysts say that so far none seems as threatened as the Democrats.
The three Republicans most often cited as vulnerable are Jesse Helms of North Carolina, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Larry Pressler of South Dakota.
National attention is already focusing on North Carolina, where Harvey Gantt, a former mayor of Charlotte, topped a six-man field May 8 competing for a chance to oppose the arch-conservative Helms. But Gantt failed to get 40 percent of the vote, and thus faces a runoff on June 5 against second-place finisher Michael Easley, a county district attorney.
Well-known artists, including Roy Lichtenstein and Robert Rauschenberg, have contributed to Easley, hoping he will be the best challenger to Helms, who has sponsored legislation to bar federal support for works deemed to be obscene.
In South Dakota, Ted Muenster is challenging Pressler, who is best known in Washington for voting against Bush more than any other Republican senator.
Democrats say that in a year when an anti-Washington mood is rife, Muenster, a businessman and an aide to a former governor, is an ideal candidate.
Bush's popularity is of some modest help to Republican candidates, politicians say, and the improved farm economy is making it easier for Republicans in such places as Iowa and Illinois, two of this year's battlegrounds.
But many of this year's main topics - abortion, the environment, the peace dividend - tend to give an advantage to Democrats.
Instead of using issues, the Republicans have achieved their advantage this year largely through a mundane but crucial bit of politics: They have done a better job of recruiting Republican candidates to challenge Democratic incumbents than the Democrats have done at finding candidates to challenge Republican incumbents.
Republican Party officials persuaded eight sitting members of the House to give up their seats and run for the Senate.
Democrats see an irony in this: the Republican failure to dislodge Democrats from control of the House has left many Republican members so frustrated that they are willing to walk away from a safe House seat for a shot at a Senate seat.
"Republican members of the House do not have a lot to lose by running for the Senate," said Anita Dunn, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
"They have no power in the House and no future. If they actually felt Republicans would regain control any time in their lifetime it would have been worth staying."
Moreover, with a Republican administration, Dunn said, Republicans can be confident that the White House will find them a job if they lose.
In Iowa, Illinois and Rhode Island, Republican members of the House are challenging incumbent Democratic senators.
In Michigan, Rep. Bill Schuette is favored to win the Republican nomination to challenge Levin.
In Colorado and Idaho, Republican House members are running for seats left vacant by the retirement of Republican senators, increasing the party's chances of holding those seats.
By contrast, not a single Democrat in the House is seeking a Senate seat this year.
by CNB