Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, June 23, 1990 TAG: 9006260390
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: C-3 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: ROBERT de VOURSNEY
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
According to this vision, the metropolitian corridor that stretches from Northern Virginia to the Hampton Roads will see sizzling growth and unbridled prosperity. Meanwhile, the rest of the commonwealth - especially small cities, small towns and rural areas - will lag far behind in population, jobs and income; outvoted in the General Assembly and ignored by the crescent.
Such a prognosis is too dire, and a number of futures for non-metropolitan Virginia are possible - some good, some bad.
Let's review some of those futures, beginning with a Gloom-Doom Scenario:
The energy crisis of 1993 has triggered the Black Tuesday stock-market crash of March 1994, and within six months the economy collapses. America is in hock with relentless federal-govermment deficits, flimsy corporate-financing schemes, buy-now/pay-later consumerism, debt everywhere and astonishing lending practices by thrifts. Now the bill has come due.
Recurrent inflation, pathetic rates of personal saving and anemic productivity make things worse. It all comes tumbling down, wiping out the prudent and improvident alike. Non-metro Virginia, its low-wage manufacturing base already hurt by technological obsolescence and foreign competition, is especially hard-hit.
This is a worst-case scenario. As it applies to non-metro Virginia, it already has a name - Tobacco Road . It is not the reality but the stereotype: grinding poverty, fifth-grade education, teen-age pregnancies, tarpaper shacks and outdoor plumbing.
The Sacrifice Area scenario is a variation on the "gloom-doom" theme. According to this scenario, non-metro Virginia becomes the area where metro Virginia gets its water, locates its prisons and dumps its wastes.
In the Muddling Through scenario, not much happens in non-metro Virginia during the 1990s, and not many people care. A few plants move in, usually to a refrain that a better day is dawning. Some businesses shut down. Unemployment remains about where it is today. Local governing bodies ride 40-cent and 50-cent tax rates into the sunset. Schools operate under the dictum, "If it was good enough for my daddy, it's good enough for my children." Slowly things get older - pepole, buildings, businesses, you name it. Most young people pack up and leave.
A more positive version is Hilton Head in the Highlands. Non-metro Virginia becomes the vacation home to the BosWash Corridor. Aging yuppies mingle with colorful local folk. Tourism flourishes, and some developers make money. But for most people, life just goes on.
Another positive future is the Switzerland scenario. Beginning in the '90s, non-metro Virginia begins a radical experiment. It reorganizes its schools to make the utmost use of technology.
Computer training becomes part of almost every class. A mammoth campaign raises the skills of the adult work-force. Every adult worker receives at least 10 months training plus annual retraining. Manufacturers of high-quality products requiring highly skilled, adaptable work-force locate all across non-metro Virginia.
One also can envision several "boom-zoom" scenarios.
In Bayonne by the Blue Ridge, non-metro Virginia hands the keys to industry, and everything takes a back seat to industrial growth.
The state undertakes a colossal program of road building. Shell buildings go up everywhere. Industrial-training programs take over high schools and community colleges. Environmental regulations are put on the shelf.
Industry undergoes a major expansion at just about the time when many had counted American industry out. Pollution and crime increase, but it's deemed an acceptable price to pay for more jobs and better wages.
Let a Thousand Flowers Bloom: This is the era of the entrepreneur and nowhere more than in non-metro Virginia. Government and state universities, in partnership with banks and businesses, offer working capital and managerial help to new and small businesses. Throughout the state, small businesses sprout by the scores, boosting employment and raising income.
Then there is the possibility that life in the future will be quite a bit different from what we know today.
The Global Village scenario foresees a high-tech society, and non-metro Virginia with its attractive, hassle-free atmosphere becomes home to computer programmers, artists, designers, consultants and engineers who telecommute to world centers. Fiber-optic cables, videophones, interactive cable television and satellites join friends and neighbors, and link small communities with a global society.
In the Green scenario, the early 21st century sees a revolution in values and consciousness. Many people leave the metropolitan area to live in small, self-contained communities with distinct religious and spiritual orientations. Some achieve nirvana through herbs. Non-metro Virginia becomes the East Coast home to many such communities.
Finally, there is the Official Future. During the '90s, major government-assisted programs prepare industrial sites, construct shell buildings and build industrial-access roads. State and local economic development efforts attract out-of-state manufacturers and foreign investment. Massive highway construction is under way.
Farmers' markets and new crops nurture a renewal in agriculture. A push on tourism pays off. With more state money, public education gets better, and illiteracy is erased. With state and federal help, localities build and maintain adequate water and sewage-treatment facilities.
Many futures are possible, but which one will non-metro Virginia have? Partly it will be the one handed to it. Largely it will be the one it makes for itself.
The future is not out there hiding behind a veil. Rather, it is made by the decisions Virginians make, or fail to make, every day.
As they look to the future, non-metro Virginians need to ask whether growth per se is good and lack of growth is bad.
Lack of growth, assuming people enjoy a decent standard of living and communities preserve their quality of life, can be a virtue. Small can be beautiful. I doubt very much that the residents of Galax, Emporia, Harrisonburg or Tappahannock would want their communities to be like Birmingham or Atlanta.
Virginians outside the corridor have a chance to maintain livable communities and avoid the idiocy of suburban life. Non-metro Virginia can build on the best features of small town and rural life: a sense of community, concern for neighbors, participation in civic life, a human scale.
These features will appeal to many Americans who grow dissatisfied with a shapeless, rootless, homogenized life in the suburbs. As Virginia enters the 21st century, the wave of the future may be found in the values and lifestyles of the past.
by CNB