Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, July 8, 1990 TAG: 9007100423
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: D3 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DON NUECHTERLEIN
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
Ten years after Quebec rejected a "sovereignty-association" proposal put forward by the separatist Parti Quebecois, this idea is being resurrected by Quebeckers who believe Canada has now rejected Quebec's long-stated desire to be treated as a "distinct society" within Canada.
Most Americans have taken Canada for granted for so long that it is shocking to realize we may soon have more than one country on our nothern border. In fact, three or four separate countries could conceivably result from Canada's newest constitutional crisis.
One scenario suggests that if Quebec secedes, the four small Atlantic provinces (Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island) will ask for admission to the United States because they would be cut off from the rest of Canada.
These four provinces are economically depressed and cannot survive without large subsidies from the federal government in Ottawa. If Quebec secedes, the rest of Canada may not want to continue a high level of transfer payments to this depressed area.
Another scenario is that British Columbia will ask for independence because it has little in common with eastern Canada. Its booming economy is based on trade and commerce with East Asia and western United States. Some think neighboring oil-rich Alberta would join British Columbia to form an economically strong country in the Pacific Northwest.
That leaves Ontario and the Prairie provinces - Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Some observers say the two Prairie provinces would ask for statehood in the United States rather than remain with industrialized Ontario in a reduced Canada.
The U.S. government is now facing up to this unpleasant situation in Canada. The New York Times reported June 29 that a senior State Department official said: "We would be highly distressed if Canada broke up. This situation has major implications for the United States in the long term."
He suggested that the numerous treaties and agreements that govern trade, customs, drug enforcement, the St. Lawrence Seaway and defense arrangements between Canada and the United States would have to be reviewed. Similarly, a new free-trade agreement would have to be negotiated with Quebec if Ottawa and Washington decided it was in their mutual interest to extend its provisions to another country.
U.S. politicians, in Congress and in the states, need to be especially cautious during the coming months in commenting about a potential breakup of Canada. Not only would divorce between Canada and Quebec complicate U.S. diplomatic relations with both sides, any show of satisfaction by U.S. officials would fuel anti-American sentiment in Ontario and probably in Quebec.
If separation occurs after negotiations between Quebec and Ottawa, the United States should work closely with Canada to ease the inevitable economic and political disruptions.
Washington would be particularly interested about what defense arrangements an independent Quebec would make, and whether it would adhere to the NORAD treaty for defense of North America and the NATO treaty for defense of Western Europe.
The treaty governing the St. Lawrence Seaway, most of which lies in Quebec, would need to be renegotiated.
The president and Congress should discourage talk about the four Atlantic provinces asking for admission to the United States. Although they are strategically located along the North Atlantic coast and therefore useful as military outposts, their high unemployment rates and need for transfer payments make them poor candidates for American statehood.
Ontario would assume a greater importance for the United States if Quebec leaves Canada.
Ontario alone has more trade with the United States than does Japan. Keeping this dynamic, well-governed province as a close neighbor and partner will be a vital U.S. interest into the 21st century. Building good relations with a separate and equally dynamic Quebec would be an equally important goal of U.S. foreign policy.
by CNB