
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: SUNDAY, July 15, 1990                   TAG: 9007160294
SECTION: BUSINESS                    PAGE: B-4   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: SANDRA BROWN KELLY HOMES EDITOR
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium

AREA'S HOUSING MARKET STRONG

The Roanoke Valley has a reputation for never having the wild swings in economic conditions that many communities experience. That reputation holds true in a Housing Demand Index published in the July issue of Builder magazine.

Roanoke got a B grade, which means it is considered a strong housing market. The only glitch is that the index also suggested that the Roanoke market can be expected to deteriorate.

The index, based on a quarterly study of 141 housing markets, was done by Alfred Gobar. He is a New York economist who has done similar evaluations for 25 years.

The markets were looked at in three ways: the rate at which housing is being built to what the market will absorb; the average household income versus the average price of housing in the market; and the combined effect of demand by units and demand by buying power.

Grade A meant a very strong market, C was a balanced market where supply and demand are equal, D a weak market and F a very weak market.

Here are some of the grades:

Richmond, C+ and getting better;

Norfolk, Greensboro, N.C., and Atlanta, D- and expected to worsen;

Charlotte, C and expected to worsen;

Washington, D.C., A- and getting better;

Albany, N.Y., Cincinnati, Eugene, Ore., Huntsville, Ala., Jacksonville, Fla., Louisville, Ky., Omaha, Seattle and Toledo, A and getting better.

The Fs went to Denver, F+ and improving; New Orleans, F+ and expected to stay that way; Oklahoma City, F and holding; Raleigh, N.C., and Shreveport, La., F and expected to worsen; Richland, Wash., F and improving.

Gobar said his findings actually said good things because more than three-fourths of the markets can expect to have demand match or exceed supply over the next 12 months.

The National Association of Home Builders' economic outlook in the same issue of Builder magazine made this point about housing:

"In the single-family market, reports nationwide indicate weakness in demand for high-end units, and continued strength in the more affordable part of the market. Despite the long-term trend toward building bigger, fancier units, the current market favors low-end production."

The NAHB said multifamily housing "is drowning in a sea of problems," that include tax reform, high vacancies, low rents, a credit crunch and costly requirements for handicapped accessibility.

by CNB