ROANOKE TIMES

                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: MONDAY, July 23, 1990                   TAG: 9007230244
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A/1   EDITION: EVENING 
SOURCE: TERENCE HUNT ASSOCIATED PRESS
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Medium


BALANCE OF POWER SHIFTING

It was a snapshot of shifting global power: A beaming Mikhail Gorbachev and Helmut Kohl standing together and announcing to the world an agreement that put German unification on a fast track.

Relegated to the sidelines for the moment, President Bush cheered on the Soviet and German leaders with back-to-back telephone calls. But the White House was secondary, a footnote to the day's big story.

There is no question that Bush has been instrumental in the Western response to swiftly moving currents in the Eastern bloc. But his long-distance reply to the Gorbachev-Kohl decision last week illustrates America's changing role in the world.

After decades of projecting global influence on the strength of its nuclear arsenal and economic power, the United States is struggling to adjust.

"America's leadership is still dominant but now it has to be based on a bigger variety of factors than just who has the bomb," White House press secretary Marlin Fitzwater said. "It's a greater test of leadership to guide events in this climate."

Stephen Hess, a Brookings Institution fellow, said, "We're not a hapless giant, we're an important player. But it's no longer a bipolar world" of just the United States and Soviet Union.

Whereas President Reagan sought to assert U.S. dominance to counter Soviet military might, Bush offers the hand of friendship to Moscow and strives for accommodation and conciliation with restive Western allies.

The Kremlin, long the chief adversary to Washington, is regarded today as more of a welfare case as its Warsaw Pact crumbles and its military muscle fades.

"We're still No. 1 militarily," said Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia. "The bad news is that it doesn't matter as much as it did two or three years ago. As the importance of the military declines, power has got to flow to Bonn and Tokyo, in particular."

Indeed, West Germany, surging toward unification with East Germany and a prosperous future, and Japan, basking in great wealth, are the major rivals to the United States for political and economic influence.

While offering words of encouragement to developing democracies, the United States is restrained by its economic problems. Tokyo replaces Washington as the world's biggest foreign aid donor.

Duke University political scientist James David Barber assesses the United States as "a secondary nation rather than as the leading champion of democracy in the world. . . .

"The president of the United States is not coming forth as a person standing for global democracy but rather a person responding to [South Africa's Nelson] Mandela, to [Czechoslovakian President Vaclav] Havel, to Gorbachev and trying to wing it on the basis of the placidity of the American people," Barber said.

After the seven-nation summit in London this month, America's allies spoke comforting words on Washington's global role.

"There are three great groups of nations at the summit, one based on the dollar, one based on the yen, and one based on the deutschemark," British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said.

French President Francois Mitterrand said, "I hope America does not have the idea they are sort of out of it. That is not the case. The threat from the Soviet world has been reduced. Because of that, Europe can assert its personality."

Bush acknowledges that times have changed.

"It doesn't work . . . that you have to march in lockstep on all these questions," Bush said. "We're dealing in entirely different times.

"Earlier on, in terms of the alliance, we had a much more formidable military opposition. Now we see the Warsaw Pact in almost a state of disarray, we see troops coming out, we see democracies replacing totalitarian systems. So you have an entirely different era," Bush said.

Despite the new environment, the White House is determined that the United States not appear as a passive player in global developments.

After Gorbachev dropped his objections to a unified Germany in NATO, Bush felt it was necessary to offer a detailed explanation of how the United States had helped advance German unification.

Similarly, Bush points out that it was the United States that charted the new direction adopted by NATO at its recent summit. The administration also credits itself with leading the West toward conventional arms cuts in Europe and arranging assistance for Poland, Hungary and other emerging democracies.

Political scientist Sabato observed that "American power doesn't matter as much any more. On the other hand, which country are these newly emerging democracies emulating? It's the United States and Thomas Jefferson that they're quoting."



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