
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: THURSDAY, February 7, 1991                   TAG: 9102070464
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A-2   EDITION: EVENING 
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: ATLANTA                                LENGTH: Short

EDUCATED GUESS: 13 TO 128 PATIENTS GIVEN AIDS VIRUS

Dentists and surgeons infected with AIDS could have transmitted the virus to as many as 128 patients or as few as 13, the Centers for Disease Control says.

The educated guesswork by the national health agency shouldn't be taken as gospel, but reinforces concerns about medical professionals passing on the disease, an American Medical Association official said.

A CDC draft report for an upcoming conference on medical safety said a statistical projection found that between 13 and 128 Americans could have been infected with the AIDS virus by dentists or surgeons.

CDC researchers reported last month that a Florida dentist who has since died of AIDS, Dr. David Acer, infected three patients.

So far, they are the only reported cases of AIDS transmitted to patients from a dentist or surgeon.

The Atlanta-based health agency based its estimate on a statistical model comparing the estimated number of AIDS-infected dentists and surgeons, the projected number of surgical or invasive procedures performed, and the theoretical risk of transmitting the AIDS virus during such procedures.

The model "has a lot of big assumptions in it," Dr. M. Roy Schwarz, a senior vice president of the AMA, said Wednesday.

"You won't know for some time, until the science catches up, whether those assumptions are valid or not," Schwarz said Wednesday.

The AMA and the American Dental Association said Wednesday the risk to patients remains extremely small.

by CNB