
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: FRIDAY, February 8, 1991                   TAG: 9102080433
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A-1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Medium

WARM SPELL NOT NECESSARILY GLOBAL

The record-setting winter heat wave in the East this week is a consequence of a fluke in weather patterns and not new, direct evidence of global warming, meteorologists say.

"Regional temperature fluctuations are much larger than global warming at this time. Therefore you shouldn't blame a temporary weather fluctuation on the greenhouse effect," said James Hansen of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, a leading researcher into global warming.

"It is very much an April-like pattern that has temporarily taken over," with colder air in the north kept out of the region by the upper air flow, said Richard Tinker of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Analysis Center in Camp Springs, Md.

Cities all along the East Coast saw record highs for February.

In Roanoke, Monday's high of 70 degrees fell just short of the 73-degree record. But on Tuesday, the 74-degree reading easily broke the old record of 68 degrees.

The balmy conditions coincided with the gathering in Chantilly, Va., of representatives of 135 nations to work toward a treaty to combat global warming.

Scientists disagree about the extent, and even the existence, of global warming. But many agree the Earth is gradually being victimized by the greenhouse effect, the phenomenon of certain atmospheric gases trapping heat on and around the planet.

While none of the meteorologists would directly associate the current warmth with the greenhouse effect, Hansen said "it's also unfair to say there is no relationship at all."

Hansen explained, "In a mid-latitude city it is normal to have a record high temperature about three times in a typical year, but with global warming you would probably get more than that in the course of a year and the extremes may be higher."

But, "If you say this is global warming, people misinterpret that and think it's going be like that all the time."

With normal weather changes, "many months will still be colder than normal, even if we are absolutely right" about global warming, he said.

Preliminary figures from the National Climatic Data Center indicate 1990 was the seventh warmest year in 90 years of record-keeping, while December was the 18th coldest month.

by CNB