Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: FRIDAY, February 22, 1991 TAG: 9102220239
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Los Angeles Times
DATELINE: AMMAN, JORDAN LENGTH: Medium
In the words of several analysts of Iraq, it was "vintage Saddam," classic rhetoric from a shrewd tactician who always tries to send several messages at once - messages that the analysts believe are clues to his strategy and position no matter what eventually results from Thursday's visit to Moscow by Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz.
According to analysts in Jordan, the main reason so few observers in the world beyond Iraq's borders understood the messages contained in Saddam's speech was that the speech was not meant for them.
"This speech was not directed at the United States or the international coalition," one veteran Arab analyst in Amman said Thursday. "He sent his message to them through Tariq Aziz. This message clearly was directed to Saddam Hussein's own troops and to his Arab supporters. It was meant as an explanation of why Aziz is in Moscow in the first place."
And while Saddam's enemies interpreted the address as a "no-surrender" speech that was, in effect, a "suicide note" to his troops, Arab analysts who have studied the Iraqi leader for years said that his address was much more a lengthy justification for peace and capitulation than it was an angry justification for war.
"He has fast been moving toward withdrawal and settlement, without any explanation to his commanders or troops," the analyst said. "This speech is that explanation - but with an appeal to them to stay ready, so they won't relax if the peace effort fails.
"He's preparing everybody in Iraq and the Arab world to accept the fact that he is now standing either on the edge of peace or the brink of a debacle."
Analysts said that Thursday's speech used the softest, most subdued rhetoric of any of Saddam's nationwide addresses since the crisis began Aug. 2. He used the word "withdrawal" for the first time in relation to Kuwait - a signal of his willingness finally to pull out of the occupied emirate. And despite his angry criticisms of President Bush, the general tone of the speech indicated that Saddam had accepted the key points of the Soviet peace plan but anticipated that the plan would be rejected by the United States, they said.
"This was Saddam Hussein in the dark, gray suit of a diplomat, not the beret and uniform of a commander at war," a veteran Jordanian analyst said.
"Our great people," Saddam began, "our courageous military forces, our Arab brothers and those all over the world who love humanity and reject aggression . . ."
What followed was largely a history lesson: the world since Aug. 2, according to Saddam. Not until the middle of his address did Saddam begin what the analysts said was a clear illustration of the Iraqi leader's mastery of manipulative diplomacy.
It came during Saddam's explanation of a new-found willingness to pull out of Kuwait, a land he had insisted for six months "is and always will be a part of Iraq." Keenly aware that he was using the word "withdraw" for the first time, Saddam used it not just once but half a dozen times, and, through that discourse, showed another trademark of his brand of diplomacy - an attempt to mimic the logic Bush used in rejecting Iraq's peace initiative last Friday as a proposal too full of conditions.
"Earlier, before we made our initiative, they [the allies] used to say, `What we want is for the Iraqis to say that they will withdraw' - just merely mention the words, `We will withdraw,' " Saddam said in his 45-minute speech. "But now they're talking about stripping Iraq of its power and capability, stripping Iraq of all its characteristics, moral characteristics and faith.
"Look how those who are calling for our withdrawal with one face are not saying now what they said earlier. Every now and then, they bring something new.
" . . . They are asking for more concessions, which will betray the rights of the Arab world."
Saddam used his speech to address his loyal following in the Arab world, appealing again to the stateless Palestinians, Islamic fundamentalists and Arab nationalists by mentioning a "withdrawal" offer in terms that would make it clear he is not suddenly selling them out.
Saddam ended his speech with three loud shouts of "Allahu Akbar!" - God is Great - and what may be his final word to his enemies before the start of a land battle: "A curse on the losers."
by CNB