ROANOKE TIMES

                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: TUESDAY, February 26, 1991                   TAG: 9102260096
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A-1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: ANDREW J. GLASS/ COX NEWS SERVICE
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Medium


IN FACE OF A ROUT, ALLIES CONFIDENT

An emerging Iraqi rout on the field of battle - and not President Saddam Hussein's call for his troops to quit Kuwait - persuaded White House policy-makers Monday that the Persian Gulf War has only days, if not hours, more to run.

In an attack of unprecedented scope and size in the annals of warfare, allied armored columns had swept around the main defending force and had driven to within 150 miles of Baghdad after only 48 hours of ground warfare.

According to Pentagon officials, a series of lightening leapfrog thrusts across the flat Iraqi desert to the Euphrates River had sealed a giant trap for the tattered remnants of what had once been a proud and modern army - the fourth largest in the world - and set the scene for a great victory.

Only occasionally, the officials said, the Iraqis dug their Soviet T-72 tanks out of bunkers to engage the American-led force. But in nearly every case, whenever they did so, they were quickly engaged from the air by tank-killing Apache helicopters and A-10 Warthog jets.

As a result, the complex air-land plan devised by Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf, the top Desert Storm commander, had well exceeded expectations and timetables.

The sole exception, officials said, was the slow pace set by Saudi tank columns as they advanced along the Kuwaiti seacoast. Largely for political reasons, the battle plan called upon Arab forces to liberate Kuwait City from the Iraqi invaders within 60 hours of the initial push.

Now that Saddam has effectively ordered his forces to shoot their way out of Kuwait, the Saudi column could still pick up speed if the Iraqi fighters head north.

But the allied command has no intention of allowing the retreating Iraqis to escape with whatever armor and artillery they still possess.

The emerging situation reminded some military analysts of the 1942 Battle of Stalingrad, in which a Nazi army, surrounded by the Russians, sought in vain to break out of a vise, only to be totally crushed.

One big difference, so far at least, is that the Iraqis have shown little will to engage the allies, despite exhortations by Saddam on Baghdad Radio to make their withdrawal "an organized, honorable one."

In the absence of any formal acceptance of United Nations resolutions by Saddam, the White House spokesmen say the war will go on. But privately, officials now acknowledge that it is only a matter of time before the circumstances of the Iraqi defeat are finally codified.

One potential complication is that Saddam may have difficulty in announcing his surrender terms to the victors.

His sole reliable diplomatic line of communication, officials in Washington said, runs from Saddam's Baghdad bunker to the Soviet Embassy in the Iraqi capital, and from there, by radio, to Moscow.

The officials said this channel could be used to inform the Iraqi envoy to the United Nations in New York that Iraq agrees to accept all of the relevant U.N. resolutions.

Any such public announcement is likely to lead to a rapid cease-fire. But U.S. officials were adamant Monday in insisting that the retreating Iraqis would not be permitted to withdraw through allied lines with any of their heavy weapons still intact.

Throughout the 40-day conflict, Saddam has steadily moved closer to full acceptance of the U.N. terms. But he has yet to do so openly, perhaps fearing that he could be toppled from power by acknowledging failure.

Whatever Saddam's next moves may be, it was becoming increasingly clear to all the warring parties that the Iraqi forces face a militarily hopeless situation in which they have no choice but to surrender or die.

Earlier this month, a reporter familiar with Schwarzkopf's intended ground campaign suggested to the general that he was not interested in fighting a battle with the Iraqis so much as orchestrating a complete rout.

Schwarzkopf said nothing in reply. But the broad smile on his face was clearly an affirmative response.



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