Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: FRIDAY, March 22, 1991 TAG: 9103220331
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: A-9 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium
The Labor Department reported initial claims rose to 519,000 in the week ended March 9, or by 45,000 from the previous week, hitting the highest level since 546,000 claims were filed during the first week of January in 1983. That was at the tail end of the last recession, the steep 1981-82 downturn.
"This suggests that more people are being laid off and it signifies a continuing weakening of the economy," said Samuel Kahan, chief economist at Fuji Securities Inc. in Chicago.
Kahan cautioned that the initial jobless claims report can be volatile from week to week. But he noted that the four-week average for claims has been moving higher since December.
Paul Getman, senior economist at Regional Financial Associates, said a number of U.S. industries - from airlines to banks to department stores - are under stress with thousands of workers still being laid off.
He said that some analysts, lured by gains in the stock market, "have declared this recession dead too early. Every month, economists think the job loss picture will turn around and every month it hasn't."
The new jobless claims report was viewed as especially worrisome because it provided one of the first looks at how the economy was performing in March. Some economists said they expected the broader jobless report for the month to take another turn for the worse.
In a further gloomy assessment of the economy, the Chamber of Commerce said Thursday that its latest survey of 8,390 businesses nationwide found that more businesses were planning to fire workers than to hire them through August of this year.
The number of businesses forecasting that they would have to fire employees rose to 21.7 percent vs. 17.8 percent expecting to hire workers.
The survey also found that 33.9 percent of the businesses expected their sales would decline in coming months vs. 35.3 percent forecasting an increase in sales.
This marked a deterioration since the chamber's last survey in September. At that time, 18 percent of businesses expected to lay off employees and 28 percent were expecting a sales decline.
"Clearly, business confidence about the future has deteriorated," said Richard Rahn, chief economist for the chamber.
Sen. Paul Sarbanes, chairman of the congressional Joint Economic Committee, said the big jump in jobless claims for the first week in March was a warning signal that the recession could be a lot deeper than the Bush administration is forecasting.
The committee issued its annual report on the economy Thursday and in it the Democrats took the administration to task for being too complacent about the downturn.
The panel's report, citing substantial uncertainty about when the recession will end, recommended several steps the government should take as an "insurance policy" to prevent the recession from worsening.
These included further interest rate cuts on the part of the Federal Reserve, a strengthening of the unemployment compensation program to end long delays in getting benefits and accelerated federal spending for public works projects.
The Labor Department said part of the jump in jobless claims came from continued layoffs in the auto industry. The department said that California had the largest increase, a rise in initial claims of more than 14,000 for the week ending March 9.
by CNB