Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: FRIDAY, March 29, 1991 TAG: 9103290699
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-1 EDITION: EVENING
SOURCE: ROB EURE and DWAYNE YANCEY/ STAFF WRITERS
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Long
However, political activists in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire said Thursday the next few months will be critical in determining whether a party whose nominating process is dominated by liberals is prepared to a accept a black candidate with a message of fiscal conservatism.
Wilder's formation of an exploratory committee made news around the country Thursday - something other potential candidates would envy. But it excited special interest in Iowa and New Hampshire, where Democrats are eager for candidates to begin their rounds.
At long last, the 1992 campaign seems to be starting, first with former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas indicating his interest in running, and now with Wilder.
In Concord, N.H., party activist Jean Wallin returned home Wednesday night to find a message on her answering machine from her daughter in Maryland: "You must be out at a Wilder-for-president rally."
"He's certainly going to attract a lot of interest," said Wallin, who earned her liberal credentials by helping organize George McGovern's 1972 campaign in the state. "A lot of people will go to hear or see him, which generally is your hardest problem with a candidate. To the extent his notoriety preceeds him, that's going to help him."
However, she warned: "Then he has that one fleeting chance to make the closing. He better think of a very good initial approach, because that could be his one chance."
The coming months will be critical in another way - by determining the lineup Wilder will have to compete against.
So far, only long-shot candidates such as Wilder, Tsongas and '72 nominee McGovern have indicated a willingness to run. "That immediately throws Doug Wilder into front-runner status," said George Bruno, a former New Hampshire party chairman.
Tennessee Sen. Al Gore, Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey and civil-rights leader Jesse Jackson have all said they're trying to make up their minds about whether to run.
But other potential candidates - New York Gov. Mario Cuomo, Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley, House Majority Leader Richard Gephardt and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton - have shied away from making a run, which perturbs some Democratic organizers.
"We've been talking about Cuomo so long, it feels like he's almost been nominated, elected and retired," Wallin said.
Wilder's move could force other candidates to make up their minds in the next few months, activists said. By getting in early, Wilder could stake out the middle ground Gore would like to occupy. And Wilder represents a clear threat to Jackson's black base. "The candidacy of Doug Wilder puts Jesse Jackson out of business," Democratic consultant Ray Strother told The New York Times.
Even if the Democratic field filled out by summer, this would be the shortest presidential campaign since 1972. For the last four elections, Democrats have based their presidential campaigns on Jimmy Carter's 1976 playbook - start years in advance.
But President Bush's popularity, heightened by the success of the Persian Gulf War and a feeling among candidates that the campaign season had grown too long and too costly, may have delayed the start of this presidential cycle.
Activists in Iowa and New Hampshire, which open the campaign season next February, agree that the early start got out of control by 1988. "We've had non-stop campaigning in Iowa since 1980," said Joe Shannahan of the Iowa Democratic Party offices in Des Moines. "I think we needed the break."
But party workers there say they are now getting restless.
Gephardt and West Virginia Sen. Jay Rockefeller sent Christmas cards to supporters around the country. Gore sent videotapes. Jackson visited New Hampshire in January and Iowa this week. Tsongas was in both states this week. That has been the extent of the political campaigning so far, though.
"Four years ago, just about everybody had paid staff in the county by now," said Tom Taylor, a county Democratic chairman in Iowa City.
"We're sitting here so bored," said Wallin in New Hampshire. "It's all so mysterious."
Voters seem interested, even if candidates aren't. Jackson drew a crowd of 1,000 Monday at a speech at Iowa State University. "I think that shows that people are ready to listen," said Margo McNabb, an Iowa activist. "I'm sick and tired of reading that it's all over but the shouting."
Activists in Iowa and New Hampshire now expect to start seeing candidates in the next several months and look for storefront offices to open by the end of summer or early fall. If Wilder is serious, Wallin said, "by fall, he needs to have a cadre of people throughout the state."
At least for now, the late start of the campaign can work to Wilder's advantage.
The shorter campaign has saved Wilder the inconvenience of raising money nationally until now. Even so, he is setting modest fund-raising goals.
Mark Warner, treasurer of the Wilder for President Exploratory Committee, said he expects to be able to raise "upwards of $1 million by the end of the year," a very low figure for national candidates. George Bush had raised $10 million by this point in 1987.
"If we do run it, it's going to be a Doug Wilder campaign, and it's going to be frugal," Warner said.
The reluctance of big-name candidates to join the field also means Democrats in the early states are willing to pay more attention to lesser-known contenders.
"I'm going to be writing a letter to Governor Wilder inviting him out," Taylor said. "We have a Sunday afternoon gathering the first weekend in May, and it would be nice to get a look at him."
Moreover, there seems to be a lot of interest in Wilder in his own right.
Wilder "is easily one of the most intriguing Democratic possibilities," said Jerry Crawford, a Des Moines lawyer who headed Michael Dukakis' 1988 campaign in Iowa. "He's a unique political blend of someone who will appeal to the progressive wing, and part of that is that he's black. That wing is going to give him a long look. At the same time, the moderates and conservatives would have to be impressed because he brings a prudent approach to government. That gives him a real opportunity going in."
Wilder may also benefit from the Democrats' apparent hunger for a new direction, especially on fiscal matters.
In New Hampshire, former McGovern worker Wallin is considered one of the state's most liberal organizers, but she described Wilder's message as "excellent."
"We're back in our pragmatic mode, like we were with Jimmy Carter," she said. "I think Wilder has a chance to do some good work here."
"People are fascinated by a governor who tends to be a little more conservative, and they're always intrigued by a Southerner, because what we all hear about is we have to carry the South," said Kathi Rogers, who chairs the Democratic Party in Concord, one of New Hampshire's most liberal areas.
Tsongas, in a telephone interview Thursday, predicted that the Democratic field in 1992 will sound much different on fiscal matters from previous ones. "I don't think there is a Democratic prototype anymore. If you lose as often as we have lost, you have to be open to a candidate not out of the mold. I detect a lot more openness to that."
In particular, Tsongas said, "I think it's pretty important that the Democratic Party not be perceived as anti-business." For that reason, Tsongas said he welcomed Wilder into the race. "I think he represents the new kind of Democrat. I would see him as an ally in the effort to change the party," Tsongas said.
But not all Democrats want to change the party.
"Whether Democrats will look for a fiscal conservative to carry their banner, I'm not sure they're ready for it," said Mark McKenzie, president of the New Hampshire AFL-CIO. He voiced particular concern about Wilder's support of right-to-work laws and his decision to recommend furloughing state workers.
In Iowa, where liberals pack the caucuses, several activists said Wilder's conservative message and brief experience as governor hurt him.
"I don't know how he will be perceived out here at all," said Ed Campbell, a former state chairman. "A lot of guys can talk a good game, but he doesn't have the record. But I haven't seen anybody with their toe to the water that I'd support."
Tsongas, however, believes that traditional liberals may be left without a candidate. "I think in the last analysis this will be a race of outsiders, who are willing to take the risk," he said.
Wilder found his limited forays into foreign policy a risk Thursday morning. Interviewed on NBC's "Today" show, Wilder was asked to explain his early opposition to the Persian Gulf War. He said at the time he did not have all the facts and "looking back in retrospect, I would have done what the president did."
Thursday night, Wilder made his first out-of-state appearance since becoming an official candidate, taking the fight to Gore's neighborhood with a speech to an NAACP dinner in Memphis.
He plans to travel to Boston the second week of April for a speech to the American Society of Newspaper Editors.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB