ROANOKE TIMES 

                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: TUESDAY, April 9, 1991                   TAG: 9104090089
SECTION: BUSINESS                    PAGE: A5   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: GEORGE KEGLEY BUSINESS EDITOR
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium

WORST OF RECESSION OVER, ECONOMIST SAYS

Virginia's economy approached the trough of the recession in February, strengthening the prospect for a recovery to begin this spring, according to a report issued Monday.

Roy Pearson, economist at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, said the return of troops from the Persian Gulf, rising consumer confidence and low inflation are major positive forces that will make recovery in the state a reality.

With extra boosts from returning troops and expectations of more tourists this summer, Pearson said the state's economic recovery is expected to parallel rather than lag behind the nation's.

Pearson, writing in his monthly Virginia Business Report newsletter, projected second-quarter retail sales in the state will rise 2 to 3 percent, "barely ahead of last year's level," after inflation.

For the third quarter, Pearson predicted a rise of more than 5 percent, after inflation, in retail trade. If other projections of growing income and consumer confidence are correct, he said, retail sales could increase by 11 percent in the last quarter of this year.

In a tabulation of eight economic indicators during February, the Roanoke area registered a 3.3 percent decline compared with February 1990, Pearson said.

Charlottesville was the only one of 17 urban areas of the state recording growth for the month, a 1.5 percent gain in the index. Lynchburg registered a 0.4 percent decline, Bristol was down by 10.4 percent, Staunton was down by 6.4 percent and Winchester was 13.3 percent below its year-earlier level, the report said.

Roanoke's decline included: building permits, lagging by 78.2 percent; new car registrations; down 19.3 percent; newspaper advertising linage; down 8.7 percent, and water consumption, down 2.5 percent.

Also, retail sales increased 4.3 percent, bank checking transactions were up by 29.2 percent, employment rose 1.3 percent and electricity consumption was 2.7 percent more than a year earlier. 


 by CNB