Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: THURSDAY, April 18, 1991                   TAG: 9104180437
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A-1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: ANDREW ROSENTHAL THE NEW YORK TIMES
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Long

BUSH PLAN TO AID KURDS THREATENS TO ENTRAP U.S.

Less than a day after the president said he would set up refugee camps in northern Iraq, the United Nations was questioning the legal basis for the effort, which seemed to be predicated on little more than the rights of a conqueror.

The White House found itself sidestepping questions about the political future of Iraqi Kurdistan to avoid conflicts with its allies in Turkey, which contains the largest population of Kurds and which has long feared and opposed steps that could encourage any Kurdish separatism.

But, signaling its own awareness that the refugee problem could become political and military dynamite if not properly handled, the White House warned Kurdish opposition groups not to use the proposed refugee camps as a staging area and safe haven for guerrilla bands.

The Bush administration took pains to reassure the American people that the refugee project was a short-term commitment and that the United States would not be drawn ever deeper into Iraq's tortuous politics.

"We hope and intend to turn them over to the U.N. to administer as soon as possible," Marlin Fitzwater, Bush's spokesman, said of the camps. "This effort in no way is expected to delay the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region."

But administration officials acknowledged they would have difficulty getting the U.N. Security Council to approve an allied plan for coaxing the refugees to return home and that they had not resolved the far more difficult question of how to protect them from reprisals by Iraqi President Saddam Hussein if they do go back.

Indeed, there was confusion Wednesday about the procedural aspects of Bush's relief plan. U.N. Secretary General Javier Perez de Cuellar, asserted that Iraq must agree to the plan before it could proceed and that it would require a new Security Council vote as well. The White House disputed both points and suggested that it would press Perez de Cuellar to change his position.

In addition to feeding and clothing Kurdish refugees, the United States and its partners in the operation are likely to find themselves caring for their sick and perhaps even arbitrating their political disputes.

Prominent foreign policy analysts suggested Bush could be moving toward an indefinite commitment to protect the Kurds and direct involvement in determining the shape of Iraq's political structure.

"We should not delude ourselves that this is something we can do for a month and then walk away," said former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.

In outlining its plans for the refugees, the White House has stressed the humanitarian aspects of providing food and clothing and Bush said he was reasonably confident Iraq would not attack the planned refugee camps.

But Bush and his aides acknowledge that the United States, Britain, France and Turkey will have to protect the Kurds from Saddam's repression as well, and that poses risks and long-term problems.

"We can protect these people for a while," said Kissinger, "but the basic problem will be either to get a government into Baghdad that one can trust enough to treat these Kurds differently than they've been treated for decades or get some kind of international regimen that limits the capacity of the Iraqi government for repression in the Kurdish area. Either would be a major intervention in what has heretofore been considered the domestic affairs of another country."

Kissinger said the trouble with trying to provide an international security apparatus for the Kurds in northern Iraq was that such an effort would presume some sort of autonomy for the region.

That could put Washington in conflict not only with Turkey, whose Kurdish citizens are already agitating for autonomy, but also with Syria and Iran, which also have Kurdish populations.

Former Secretary of State Cyrus Vance said he did not think Bush had any alternative to aiding the refugees.

"It looks like you're going to end up with a lot of big camps," he said, "such as we've seen on the West Bank. Where are you going to have these people go so they don't sit in camps indefinitely? They should go back to their hometowns and cities. But unless you have some kind of assurance that they are going to be protected, it's going to be hard to ask them to go back. And that gets us involved in politics."

An administration official said Bush hoped to safeguard the Kurds from Saddam's forces by continuing his efforts to dismantle Iraq's poison gases and biological weapons and by keeping economic sanctions in place as long as Saddam is in power.

But there are already signs the pressure to do more will continue to mount on Bush, who has already been criticized for urging the Iraqis to overthrow Saddam and then remaining on the sidelines of the ensuing civil war.

"Once you commit yourself to protecting those people, you are committed until you are sure they are 100 percent safe, and they won't be as long as Saddam Hussein and his regime are in power," said Najmaldin O. Karim, a spokesman for the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, one of the two largest Iraqi Kurdish groups.