Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, January 2, 1992 TAG: 9201020017
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: 1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: By MARK LACTER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
'92 LOOKING CLEAR IN THIS CRYSTAL BALL
When in doubt about the future, prognosticate.As a columnist, year-ahead forecasts always are a good bet because you don't have to worry about getting the facts straight and nobody will remember what you were forecasting much past New Year's.
With that in mind and having warmed up my imitation-crystal ball. Companies and shareholder take note. I predict:
The national economy should perk up in the second or third quarter, though new hiring will be very spotty. This will create an increasingly dual society of paycheck and non-paycheck families.
The stock market will be hot this year, perhaps even hitting a 4,000 Dow before sharply retreating after the election.
Home sales will perk up, based on low interest rates, pent-up demand and a shortage of new home construction. Prices, however, will stay flat, except in the $100,000-$200,000 range, where appreciation will be fairly substantial.
Interest rates will inch up slightly, but remain extremely low.
Another major airline, one we all know, will stop flying in 1992.
There will be rumors about General Motors being acquired by a Japanese car company, but it won't happen because the automaker won't be deemed financially viable.
Because of the very weak dollar and the recession, travel to Europe will plummet.
Concern over nuclear proliferation will gain the spotlight - even over the weak economy - as Election Day nears.
Five-year plans will become quite popular within corporations.
Congress will pass some kind of national health insurance plan before the elections.
Congress will pass some kind of tax-cut package before the elections.
Congressional leaders will insist that they are not being pressured by political considerations.
Books will sell better than VCRs. But more people will use VCRs. The camcorder craze will fade.
Sony Corp. will be playing a much greater role in the running of Columbia Pictures Entertainment, resulting in the resignation of several top executives.
The number of layoff announcements among major companies will drop sharply after midyear. But January and February might be tough.
Credit-card interest rates will drop slightly.
The murmurings about another Depression in this country will subside.
Russia and the 10 other members of the newly formed commonwealth face such disarray that American businesses will hold off on any further investment. The exceptions are the entertainment and communications industries, where demand is enormous even in the face of continuing turmoil.
General Motors Chairman Robert Stempel will not last the year in that post.
CBS will take a financial bath in its coverage of the Winter Olympic Games. After 1992, Ted Turner will acquire the broadcast rights to the games at a much reduced amount.
Michael Milken will begin granting interviews in an effort to reclaim his place in history.
At least three major daily newspapers will cease publishing.
Two medium-size movie companies will call it quits.
A record number of retailers will file for bankruptcy protection, including some very familiar names.
Reflecting the new age of frugality, Toyotas and Hondas will emerge as the vehicles of choice among upper-income folks who could afford Mercedes and BMWs.
Electric cars will become very chic.
One of the major networks will be sold and refashioned as an information-only channel that will concentrate on reality based programming (a la "Rescue 911").
The Democrats will nominate someone other than the current "six-pack" of candidates as the party's standard-bearer for 1992.
In one of the closest elections ever, George Bush will eke out a victory.