Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, January 26, 1992 TAG: 9201270190
SECTION: NEW RIVER VALLEY ECONOMY PAGE: 4 EDITION: NEW RIVER
SOURCE: CATHRYN McCUE NEW RIVER VALLEY BUREAU
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
MANUFACTURERS PREDICT WORST IS BEHIND THEM
It's happened to your co-workers. It's happened to your neighbor. It's happened to tens of thousands of industrial workers all over the country.So far, you've escaped the big "rif" - a reduction-in-force, a layoff.
If you're worried that the recession will claim your job in 1992, maybe you can breathe a little easier. Most New River Valley manufacturers are predicting a level year.
There'll be no major slumps. But - bad news for those still out looking for work - there'll be no big gains, either.
"We've got our work cut out for us just to remain flat," said Poly-Scientific President Al Bowman. "We don't see an upswing at all."
The Blacksburg company, which makes security systems, fiber-optic gadgets and slip rings for military and commercial markets, laid off one-fourth of its employees last year - about 170 people.
At best, the year ahead looks stable if business materializes as the company projects it will, Bowman said. He doesn't foresee more layoffs - or hiring.
"It's doggone tough to get a job," he said. "If people know you're laying off, it doesn't make sense going banging on people's doors."
Leo Walker, 42, has been working part-time at Kentucky Fried Chicken in Christiansburg. It pays minimum wage, $4.25 an hour - a lot less than he earned as an asbestos-removal worker before he was laid off.
He'd like to find a decent job here, where he grew up, but nobody's hiring, he said. "Basically, it's taking what you can get."
The job market's almost as bleak for out-of-work supervisors and professionals in the industrial sector, and elsewhere.
"What does it take to get a job?" asked Donald Nichols, flipping through a list of openings at the Virginia Employment Commission in Radford.
He was laid off four months ago from ITT in Roanoke. With two kids in private colleges, Nichols, 52, can't afford to retire.
He's applied at most of the factories here and in Roanoke, and has looked as far as Richmond and Waynesboro. He said he may move to Washington, D.C., or try temporary work if he has to.
Manufacturing jobs - the kind with health and retirement benefits, a paycheck large enough to feed a family and occasional overtime pay to pad savings accounts - are disappearing from the New River Valley and elsewhere.
Jerry Barnett, a supervisor with the Virginia Employment Commission, said only one-third of 1,743 jobs listed at the Radford office last year were for production work. A few years back, it would have been twice that, he said.
Overall, at least 825 people were laid off from New River Valley manufacturing jobs during 1991. Half of those were from the Radford Army Ammunition Plant, which still employes more than 3,300 workers.
In November, unemployment in the valley reached 9.3 percent, well ahead of the state and national averages. Almost 7,000 people were out of work - and out looking.
Meanwhile, the number of people in the labor force has begun to drop off, an indication that folks are leaving the valley in search of jobs.
"Either that, or they just get discouraged and quit looking," Barnett said. The VEC's statistics are drawn from people actively pursuing work.
But there have been a few bright spots in the the New River Valley's industrial base.
Three new plants - BBA Friction in Dublin, Rene Composite Materials in Giles County and Plymouth Inc. in Radford - will start operations this year with a total of about 410 employees.
Volvo-GM Heavy Truck Corp. recalled 69 of its laid-off workers. Federal Mogul Corp., Inland Motor and Hoechst Celanese Corp. also did some hiring, for a total of about 310 employees.
Tim Rosche, manager at Federal Mogul, hopes he'll be able to keep the new workers he's hired, but the future is uncertain.
"Ours is really kind of up in the air right now because of the situation with General Motors. We really don't know how that will affect us."
GM is his biggest customer, buying about 30 percent of the Blacksburg company's automotive bearings. GM announced last year a layoff of more than 70,000 workers, but Rosche hopes that GM's reorganization will make the auto giant stronger.
Like Rosche, most New River plant managers and company presidents - whether they've hired or laid off in 1991 - are drawing up this year's business plans based on a stable number of employees.
The Roanoke Times & World-News asked major employers in a confidential survey what's in store for 1992.
Eight New River manufacturers employing 6,375 workers said their payrolls would stay the same. Two others - totaling 1,735 workers - said they would be hiring, and two more - with 1,035 workers - said they would cut the size of their work forces.
The VEC's Barnett said most of the job openings these days are in hotels, restaurants, stores and other service industries where people usually work part time for minimum wage, or close to it.
"Service industries have a continuous need," Barnett said. People still go out to eat and go to the movies. Parents need lodging when they come to town for games and graduations at Radford University and Virginia Tech.
"We're diverse enough that this downtrend in manufacturing doesn't totally wipe out the service sector," Barnett said.
Tech, the largest employer west of Roanoke, has more than 6,000 full- and part-time employees. Radford University and the New River Community College employ another 1,250.
But higher education is being squeezed by shrinking state resources. Gov. Douglas Wilder's budget proposal includes a 5 percent cut from already-slim college budgets for the next two years.
Tech spokesman Larry Hincker said 37 vacancies now are on hold. Even worse, the university may be forced to send out its first layoff notices during this fiscal crisis.
"There are still people coming on board," Hincker said, referring to 16 openings considered essential, mostly secretarial and research jobs.
At the arsenal - the valley's other economic giant - production is tied directly to world affairs and Washington politics.
"It's totally driven by demands of the Army," said E.K. "Skip" Hurley, plant manager for Hercules Inc., which runs the arsenal.
The United States simply doesn't need as much rocket propellant for tanks and guns as before. Through layoffs and attrition, the arsenal's work force is 3,377, a five-year low.
Hurley would not speculate whether there would be further layoffs in 1992. He said he didn't know if the arsenal would hire anyone either, "but I would strongly doubt it."
A few manufacturers like Hoechst-Celanese Corp. in Giles County have weathered the recession fairly unscathed. Much of the company's synthetic fibers, woven into cigarette filters and cloth, are sold overseas where markets are strong.
Last year, Hoechst replaced about 100 retirees and added 75 more people to its 2,000-plus work force. But don't count on getting a job there this year. The company won't be hiring nearly as many people, Personnel Manager Gary List said.
"The supply of our product is approaching the demand. We'd been sold out," List said. "We project a great deal of stability."
In Pulaski County, Volvo-GM will increase daily production this week and bring back some laid-off workers.
New River employers are cautious as they enter 1992, according to the newspaper's survey. They believe business conditions will stay the same as last year's, which weren't great.
But workers can take heart. At least their bosses aren't forecasting doom and gloom.
***CORRECTION***
Published correction ran on Tuesday, January 28, 1992 in Current
\ Correction
Virginia Tech spokesman Larry Hincker did not say, as suggested in Sunday's New River Valley Economy section, that only 16 job openings were considered essential.
Hincker said that the university, despite a shrinking budget, would continue to hire people to fill essential positions. Tech's job hot line advertised 16 jobs in mid-December.
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Memo: Correction