Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: TUESDAY, February 11, 1992 TAG: 9202110019
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A8 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
TSONGAS CATCHING CLINTON
Weekend polls showed former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas pulling Just last week Clinton seemed to be the New Hampshire front-runner, although he was beset with unproven allegations that he had an extramarital affair and misled a draft board to avoid serving in the Vietnam War.Weekend polls showed former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas pulling virtually even with Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton in the New Hampshire Democratic primary race.
A CNN-USA Today-Gallup tracking poll taken Friday through Sunday nights showed Clinton with 31 percent, Tsongas with 28 percent, Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey with 13, former California Gov. Jerry Brown with 10, and Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin with 8, with 10 percent for others or undecided.
Clinton's 3-point lead was less than the poll's margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, indicating a tie for support among likely voters in the nation's leadoff primary Feb. 18.
Another poll found an actual tie. Clinton and Tsongas both had 26 percent in a Boston Globe-WBZ-TV tracking poll Saturday and Sunday. They were followed by Kerrey with 11 percent, Harkin with 7 percent, and Brown with 5 percent. That poll, with a 5-point margin of error, had 17 percent undecided and 4 percent saying they would write in the name of New York Gov. Mario Cuomo.
Polls by different organizations often differ by several points in the weeks before a primary, mainly because there are different methods of trying to recognize likely voters.
Furthermore, polls taken last week for the Los Angeles Times and the Globe found so many voters saying they might change their minds that the Times called the race "fluid," and the Globe said "the state's voters are far from certain whom they will support."
The Los Angeles Times reported Sunday that Clinton had 33 percent to 28 percent for Tsongas in a poll taken Monday through Friday. Clinton appeared even further ahead of Tsongas, 37 percent to 24 percent, in Gallup's poll Tuesday through Thursday.
The other three major Democratic candidates had single digits in the Times poll: 9 percent for Kerrey, 8 percent for Harkin and 7 percent for Brown. Eleven percent were undecided and 4 percent supported another candidate.
The Times surveyed 2,133 registered New Hampshire voters, including 672 Democrats and independents who said they intend to vote in the Democratic primary, and 710 Republicans and independents who said they intend to vote in the GOP primary. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Among likely Republican voters, President Bush led 61 percent to 30 percent for conservative commentator Patrick Buchanan. Seventy-one percent of Bush supporters said they are certain to vote for Bush compared with 65 percent of Buchanan supporters who said they were certain of their choice.
Only 41 percent of likely Democratic voters said they were certain to vote for the candidate they now support. Fifty-eight percent said they still might change. One-third of the Clinton supporters called Tsongas their second choice, and a third of the Tsongas supporters called Clinton their second choice.
Gerry Chervinsky of KRC Communications Research, who conducted the Globe's polls, said they found support for Clinton dropping each night, and Tsongas' numbers rising.
Keywords:
POLITICS