FEW OUTSIDERS WILL DANCE AT NCAA BALL

                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: WEDNESDAY, February 19, 1992                   TAG: 9202190259
SECTION: SPORTS                    PAGE: C1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Jack Bogaczyk
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium
FEW OUTSIDERS WILL DANCE AT NCAA BALL
It's four weeks until the NCAA Tournament opens, but you can anticipate the screaming already from the Butlers, Western Michigans, East Tennessee States and Rhode Islands.
In a college basketball season notable for its balance and mediocrity - you need not look past Virginia's borders for proof - the NCAA ball won't invite many Cinderellas.
When the 64-team field is selected on March 15, the 34 at-large teams likely will include no more than three schools from outside the top eight conferences in the power ratings. The best six - the Big Eight, Big Ten, ACC, Pacific 10, Big East and Southeastern - figure to have at least half of the NCAA entrants.
There are 30 conference-champion automatic qualifiers this year, including the six power leagues. That leaves 24 champions to go with 32 or 33 from the top leagues. The Metro, Great Midwest and East Coast conferences don't have automatic spots. If the Metro and Great Midwest share five bids - which is likely - that adds up to 61 or 62.
Of the remaining at-large berths, one will go to the Atlantic 10 (West Virginia or Massachusetts), another to the Western Athletic (Brigham Young or Texas-El Paso), and, if another is available, the Southwest (Texas, Texas Christian or Houston) is probable.
The Colonial Athletic Association runner-up, James Madison or Richmond, should prepare to be host to an NIT first-round game. Radford or Liberty figures to be in the NCAA field as the Big South champion. The winner likely will play a Duke or UCLA in the NCAA first round. The one that doesn't win the Big South tournament will beg for an NIT date.
The Big Eight and Big Ten will get six bids apiece. The Big East is likely to get a half-dozen, too, unless Georgetown slips and is hurt by its laugh of a non-conference schedule. If stumbling Virginia can't reach 16 wins, the ACC will get only five.
Whether Georgia Tech or UVa reaches .500 in the ACC is a moot point with the NCAA Basketball Committee. A school can play in the NCAA with a losing conference record. The Cavaliers qualified after a 6-8 ACC finish a year ago. What's hurt UVa as much as anything is that its only quality non-conference victory is the ACC-Big East Challenge win over Georgetown.
The next three weeks will play a large part in the selection process because the committee puts a lot of weight on how a team performs toward the end of the regular season.
\ Most leagues would love the next 10 days of Old Dominion Athletic Conference men's basketball play. With four days left in the season, five teams, including Roanoke, are a game or less out of first place.
Virginia Wesleyan and Hampden-Sydney share the lead, but it's possible for either to fall to the fifth and have an opening game on the road Tuesday in the ODAC Tournament.
The ODAC's final two rounds, scheduled Feb. 29-March 1 at the Salem Civic Center, should be fun for everyone except the coaches.

by Bhavesh Jinadra by CNB