Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, February 20, 1992 TAG: 9202200587
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A-8 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE:
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
PAT & PAUL
IT'S FAR too early to write George Bush's political obituary - but too far into the game to say he's in the pink of health. It's also far too early to anoint Paul Tsongas the next president - but too far into the game to dismiss him as a regional also-ran.This year's New Hampshire primary seemed more to reconfirm what already was known than to offer an unexpected boost to a lucky candidate or two. It reconfirmed that President Bush almost certainly will win his party's renomination, but that the recession has cut deeply into his support. And it reconfirmed that the Democrats really don't have a front-runner yet.
The focus Tuesday night was on conservative Patrick Buchanan's 40 percent of the Republican vote. But Buchanan's resume consists of speechwriting and columnizing, hardly a kiln to temper presidential timber. According to the exit polls, a majority of Buchanan voters wanted to send a message to Bush, not help Buchanan become president.
And Bush, after all, did win, with 58 percent of the GOP vote. No sitting president has done so poorly in New Hampshire and been re-elected. But with message-sending voting now commonplace, and shallow TV spots now dominating political discourse, the old yardsticks may be obsolete.
Meanwhile, the Democrats' orthodox labor-liberals - an actual candidate (Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin) and an ever-potential one (New York Gov. Mario Cuomo, as a write-in) - finished out of the running. To the extent New Hampshire provided momentum to anyone, it was to former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas (winner of the Democratic primary, with 35 percent) and maybe Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton (second, with 26 percent).
Never underestimate the Democratic Party's capacity for shooting itself in the foot. Still, either Tsongas or Clinton, and Tsongas in particular, could prove a troublesome opponent for the Republicans.
Tsongas' economic program, while more thoughtful and austere than happy-go-lucky Reaganomics, is generally pro-business. Alone among the active candidates of either party, Tsongas has refused to endorse a middle-class tax cut; he is not, he says, Santa Claus.
Nor has he fostered the cherished myth that consumption and investment can be stimulated simultaneously, or indulged in Japan-bashing, trade-war threats or any of the other chatter that does zilch toward shoring up the foundations of America's tottering economy.
Tsongas ought to be viewed as a national candidate with a national message. If he's on a roll, that's to his credit, New Hampshire's and the nation's.
Keywords:
POLITICS