Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, March 2, 1992 TAG: 9203020180
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-4 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
"Virginia suffered the longest and steepest recession of any state in the Southeast," the study said.
The university studied 12 states, looking at employment and gross state product. In Virginia, the two indexes together will likely show the sharpest drop in the region, a 2 percent decline for fiscal 1991, the university said.
"In 1991, gross state product probably fell 2 percent. Employment probably will decline by 1.5 percent," the university reported.
The state's painful slide followed one of the region's most robust expansions during the 1980s.
A lackluster rebound is under way, the study said.
"Some recovery is likely in 1992, as employment rebounds by 1 percent and gross state product advances by nearly 2 percent," the study predicted. "However, further sluggishness is likely until the defense downsizing is completed."
The report took a close look at employment, noting that more than 20,000 construction jobs were lost in the past year. "Even so, construction jobs remain a high 5.8 percent of total jobs, suggesting that further downward adjustments may be needed," the university reported.
The study said manufacturing jobs appear to have stabilized and that trade employment "has adjusted in line with reductions in consumer spending potential."
"The finance sector has lost 4,000 jobs in the past year, but bank consolidations probably will cause another comparable loss next year."
The university also studied 47 Southeastern cities, including Richmond, Norfolk and Roanoke.
According to the study, Roanoke's manufacturing was weak during the recession. Construction fell, but a rebound is expected soon. Sales are down.
"Despite some growth in airport connections, Roanoke still remains sleepy," the university wrote. "Employment growth may average less than 1.5 percent during the 1990s."
"Richmond has slowly changed toward a service economy, but its concentration of trade and services still remains low relative to its income. Without further engines of growth, modest employment expansion still should develop," the report said.
In Norfolk, manufacturing and construction employment is down, but retail sales are rebounding, the report said. "After falling nearly 1.5 percent in 1991, employment probably will rise by less than 0.5 percent in 1992," the report said.
by CNB