Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: WEDNESDAY, March 4, 1992                   TAG: 9203040101
SECTION: BUSINESS                    PAGE: A7   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: NEW YORK                                LENGTH: Medium

FEBRUARY SWEET FOR RETAILERS ANALYSTS EXPECT HEALTHY SALES REPORT

But industry analysts caution that despite the nascent signs of strength, the consumer spending climate remains uncertain and store owners aren't out of the woods.

Jeffrey Feiner, an analyst with Salomon Brothers Inc., said the February results "should again show reasonably good increases, as was the case in January." He said more shoppers were in the stores last month and "consumers seemed to be more willing to spend."

Retail sales picked up in January as consumers loosened their purse strings for the first time in months. The improvement was a relief after a Christmas season that was dismal for many store owners. Several large merchants, including department store giant R.H. Macy & Co. Inc. and five-and-dime operator McCrory Corp., have sought bankruptcy court refuge already this year.

January and February, when retailers are clearing winter merchandise and making way for spring lines, are the slowest months of the retailing year, and analysts generally attach little significance to fluctuations in those months.

Nonetheless, Feiner said, "The consumer historically has led the economy out of recessionary periods and we believe this will again be the case, as evidenced by this noticeable improvement."

Retailing analysts remain wary about sustained sales improvements. Janet Mangano, who tracks the retail industry for Burnham Securities Inc., said it will take time for the effects of lower interest rates to reach consumers.

"There's no clear evidence that we're out of the slump," she said. But she predicted, "You're going to see a substantive pickup in the second half."

Feiner warned that while retail sales appear stronger now, they could fluctuate in coming months. The biggest test of consumers' willingness to spend likely will come in April, when many people are expected to begin buying spring clothes.

The figures due out Thursday will be compared against the extremely weak results of February 1991, when many retailers said sales fell because of the Gulf War.

While it won't take much for stores to show an improvement over their year-earlier sales, analysts said they detected a somewhat healthier tone to this year's business.

Discounters like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Kmart Corp. are again expected to show stronger gains than other, higher-priced stores.

Consumers have shifted many of their purchases to stores that better fit their shrinking budgets.