Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, March 8, 1992 TAG: 9203080211
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: D-3 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: ROB EURE STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Medium
Until Wilder withdrew from the presidential field in January, he and his one-man think-tank, Paul Goldman, figured that on Tuesday, Wilder would surge into second place in the Democratic nomination contest, probably behind fellow Southerner Bill Clinton.
Last week, Wilder and Goldman were still dreaming of what might have been:
Fresh from a win in neighboring Maryland, and at least a split with Clinton in Georgia, Wilder says he would have had momentum for the Super Tuesday primaries in five Southern states with a solid black vote.
Goldman, the Virginia Democratic Party chief, said Wilder would have caused "a clear deadlock" in Tuesday's contests and the nomination battle generally. "We would have a place at the table, and that was the strategy all along."
Indeed, as events have unfolded in the early primaries, two key elements of the Wilder-Goldman strategy have come to pass.
The first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire went to local candidates, denying any Democrat front-runner status.
Black voters, although they appear to be solidifying behind Clinton, have not turned out in large numbers.
"The political adrenalin in the black community is dead right now," said Avon Drake, a political scientist at Virginia Union University.
Wilder can reasonably argue that he could have sparked excitement among black voters, who could have delivered several of the Southern states, probably South Carolina and Mississippi.
Instead, Clinton has benefited from Wilder's absence. His strategists now say Wilder's withdrawal was the most important development in Clinton's strategy.
"They are stealing my line," Goldman said. "Wilder's withdrawal was the biggest event in the campaign for Clinton. They all know that."
What neither Wilder nor Goldman can explain is why they never were able to sell their dream to the national press, which wrote Wilder off from the beginning as a second-tier candidate.
Both men now relish the opportunity to point out the shortcomings of this year's "conventional wisdom." Of the three so-called second-tier candidates, only Wilder is gone. Former California Gov. Jerry Brown and former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas have shown surprising strength. And in the top group, only Clinton is fulfilling predictions, having survived the damaging charges of extramarital affairs and draft evasion.
"I knew it would be different, but the national media concluded that three of us were rinky dinks," Wilder said. "Those pundits ought to give the American people a chance."
The beauty of Monday-morning quarterbacking, of course, is that you can criticize what went wrong for others without having to prove you wouldn't have made your own mistakes.
And in Wilder's case, no one knows whether the two looming problems with his campaign - a lack of organization and money - would have been solved.
Tuesday's multiple contests may hinge on organization as much as strength in any single constituency. With nine primaries and two caucuses on the same day, Wilder would have needed organizations in every state where he was a serious contender to reach his voters and get them to turn out.
He had the same general problem with money. Wilder said he could win on a shoestring budget. But his final spending report, plus post-campaign comments from staff members, indicate his appeal among Democratic financiers was abysmal.
In Virginia, Wilder overcame those obstacles, partly because both his financial support and organization were underestimated, but largely because of the celebrity status he enjoyed in state with the public and the media.
Wilder may be right - this could have been his finest hour. But if he really expected that it would be, most people who know him best think he would still be in the race.
Rob Eure covers state government from the Roanoke Times & World-News' Richmond bureau.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB