Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SATURDAY, March 14, 1992 TAG: 9203140036
SECTION: SPORTS PAGE: B4 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: BILL BRILL SPORTSWRITER
DATELINE: CHARLOTTE, N.C. LENGTH: Medium
Sagarin, an MIT graduate who lives in Bloomington, Ind., is the computer whiz who ranks teams weekly for USA Today.
As such, a lot of basketball aficionados are paying particular attention to the Sagarin rankings, trying to fill out their 64-team NCAA brackets.
Sagarin is nothing if not controversial. His latest rankings have Indiana, Kansas and Arizona rated ahead of Duke, which has been No. 1 in The Associated Press' poll all season.
"The ACC rating is down," Sagarin said Thursday, adding that even if Duke were 27-0, the Blue Devils wouldn't be No. 1.
The NCAA also has computer rankings, which its basketball committee will use when it comes to selecting the 34 at-large teams.
However, the committee's process also has a human factor. Sagarin's does not.
Sagarin, who understands that by living in Indiana, he is open to criticism for having the Hoosiers No. 1, nevertheless defends his record.
He pays relatively little attention to won-loss records and far more to scores. If you want to rate high with him, pour it on.
Most seasons, he said, almost all of his top 43 teams will wind up in the NCAA Tournament. It's not more than that because of the automatic qualifiers in the smaller conferences.
It won't happen this time because he had Illinois as No. 35 with a 13-13 record (before losing Wednesday), and Purdue as No. 40 at 15-13 (also before a defeat). Neither is expected to be under consideration.
Sagarin concedes that teams that just win don't do well in his system.
"I have Southern Cal pretty low [No. 44] because they've won a lot of games by three points," he said.
Virginia is No. 29, easily in the NCAA field, but down two places from last week despite two victories.
The NCAA, meanwhile, rates teams by where they win and how the teams they have beaten do against other teams.
"We're not very much alike at all," Sagarin said.
This year, he has Cincinnati rated No. 6 because the Bearcats have won a lot of games by a large margin. He also has Colorado, the last-place team in the Big Eight, ahead of UNC Charlotte, which is in contention for an NCAA bid.
Sagarin said he isn't being dogmatic. He has tried a lot of different programs, and this one happens to give him the most wins when two teams are matched against each other.
He allots a 4.5-point favoritism for home teams, and, with that figured in, said he's right about 75 percent of the time.
In 1981, when he was being used only by the Bloomington paper, "I had Indiana No. 1 with nine losses, North Carolina second, Virginia fourth and LSU sixth. That was my best year," he said.
Those teams ended up in the Final Four, with the Hoosiers beating the Tar Heels for the title. "I just wish it was 1981 again," he said.
Sagarin's ratings have been used by USA Today since Jan. 8, 1985 - "Elvis' 50th birthday," he said.
He figures he averages getting three teams in the Final Four most years. Last year, he said, he missed on Kansas, "and, of course, I had UNLV to win."
Sagarin defends using the scores, rather than just wins and losses.
"Suppose," he said, "God picked out the 10 best teams in the country and decreed they would all play in the same league. And suppose one of those teams went 0-18 but was 10-0 outside the league.
"That team might be 10-18, but it had been determined it was one of the 10 best in the nation."
Another Sagarin analogy: "If you knew I could go 15 rounds with Mike Tyson every time, but lose, you'd still say I was a pretty good fighter."
That's what his numbers tell him, he said. There is no emotion involved.
"I start each year with last year's ratings, but by Dec. 10, there's been enough games that the computer washes that out," he said.
And the computer tells him Bobby Knight's Hoosiers are No. 1.
"I'll be interested to see what happens [in the NCAA tournament]," he said. "If Indiana goes farther than Duke, I'll smile."
by CNB