Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: TUESDAY, March 2, 1993 TAG: 9303020349
SECTION: HORIZON PAGE: F-5 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE:
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
GOING BEYOND THE OVERALL FINDINGS
This is the ninth annual Roanoke Valley Poll, conducted by Roanoke College's Center for Community Research in conjunction with the Roanoke Times & World-News.The poll was conducted in September and October 1992 and interviewed 400 people in Roanoke, Roanoke County and Salem.
Three notes about the poll and its methodology are in order:
The margin of error is 5 percent. This means, center director Harry Wilson says, he is 95 percent certain that the numbers in the poll are within 5 percent of what they'd be if everyone in the valley were surveyed. "In other words, if 41 percent of the males in the sample root for the Penn State Nittany Lions, then we have 95 percent confidence that the actual percentages of males in the Roanoke Valley that are Penn State boosters is between 36 percent and 46 percent."
In some cases, the poll goes beyond the overall findings and looks at how specific groups answered the questions - such as the differences between certain age groups or income groups. Wilson notes that the margin of error is higher here, and cautions that when dealing with such sub-sections of the poll, one shouldn't focus on the specific numbers. Instead, the important thing is the trends that emerge. So in the section where the poll shows how people in different income brackets responded to questions about the valley's economy, the key is that the poll consistently showed people's fears about the economy rising with the amount of money they make, not the precise percentages.
Wilson also notes that the polling window came during a time when citizens may have been more sensitized to economic issues than ever before.
First, the presidential campaign was at its height. Second, about a week after the poll began, the news broke that the Roanoke-based Dominion Bankshares Corp. would be merged with First Union Corp. of Charlotte. Wilson said only a handful of interviews had been conducted before the Dominion news broke, and he noticed no discernible change between the answers given before and after the Dominion news.
However, since the poll was completed, a number of events have taken place that may make Roanoke Valley citizens even more sensitive about economic questions than they were in September and October. First Union has announced it will eliminate 850 jobs in the Roanoke Valley in the bank merger; Gardner-Denver has said it will close its Roanoke drilling-equipment plant, idling 400 workers; and Sears has announced it will eliminate its mail-order catalog, which will put 1,200 people at its Roanoke telecatolog center.
Finally, the center also surveyed local elected officials and the top municipal administrator in Roanoke, Roanoke County, Salem and the town of Vinton on many of the same questions that were posed to the public. Twelve officials completed surveys: Six of the eight in Roanoke and four of the six in Roanoke County. But only one of the six in Vinton and one of the six in Salem responded.