Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SATURDAY, March 13, 1993 TAG: 9303140079
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: E-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: KENT JENKINS JR. THE WASHINGTON POST
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
SENATE RACE HAS PROMISE
It's shaping up as the political equivalent of a Hollywood blockbuster, with a superstar cast, an amazing-but-true plot and a surprise ending that won't be revealed until November of next year. Coming soon, it's the Virginia U.S. Senate election.Production of this thriller is already under way, and the leading roles are being cast. Politicians inside and outside the state say the contest is likely to be one of the most caustic and closely watched races in the country in 1994.
The players include Sen. Charles Robb, the incumbent, who is struggling to keep his job after a brutal political battering. Gov. Douglas Wilder, Robb's fellow Democrat and bitter rival, is threatening to fight Robb for the party's nomination.
The Republican field is headed by Iran-Contra figure Oliver North, who already has spent more than $500,000 in an undeclared campaign for the job and is considered the GOP front-runner by party activists. Former Reagan administration budget director Jim Miller says he also plans to seek the seat, and other contenders may follow.
Although the election is still 20 months off, the political maneuvering already is so intense that the Senate race threatens to upstage Virginia's gubernatorial and state legislative contests, which take place this year. Several analysts said that among the country's 34 Senate races next year, few promise the drama of the Virginia contest.
"There's no question this is one of the top one or two targets anywhere," said David Carney, deputy director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "It's going to be very energetic, no punches pulled . . . The enthusiasm among Virginia Republicans right now is not something we normally see."
"This campaign could qualify for the scorched-earth category," said Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia. "You run out of adjectives. `Incendiary' just isn't strong enough."
Analysts say the Senate race is generating so much early interest because it has elements that could create an extraordinary political confrontation: famous faces, sharp ideological contrasts, intense personal disputes and the possibility that huge amounts of money will be raised and spent.
The field of prospective candidates is unique, politicians say, because all four who are seriously considering the race can tap significant sources of support, but all also carry political baggage.
North, Robb and Wilder are all known nationally, have well-defined public personalities and have raised significant amounts of money for political campaigns or personal causes. Miller, though less familiar to voters, was a senior federal policy maker who proudly claims a role in shaping Reagan-era economic decisions.
But each contender also has vulnerabilities.
Robb's personal life has been criticized, and he has just emerged from a lengthy federal investigation.
North's actions in the Iran-Contra affair resulted in a federal conviction that was reversed on appeal.
Wilder's failed presidential campaign and unsuccessful effort to lure the Washington Redskins to Virginia soured many voters.
And Miller, as the federal government's chief budget officer, did not predict the staggering growth of the deficit.
When so many veteran politicians have so many opportunities to attack each other, analysts say, a sharply negative campaign is almost certain. And there are personal animosities at work as well: Wilder and Robb have feuded for years, and North often has expressed contempt for the system that put him on trial.
Some outlines of a campaign are already emerging. North, in speeches across the state, has accused Robb of abandoning his moderate stance and moving to the left. North criticizes Robb's support for allowing gays to serve in the military; both are former Marines. Wilder, by contrast, has questioned whether Robb is too conservative, lambasting his vote to confirm Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas.
The potentially brutal tone of the contest was made clear in an interview Wilder gave 10 days ago, in which he suggested that Robb was inappropriately using his wife, Lynda, to deflect allegations against him. Wilder alleged that Robb was guilty of "hypocrisy of the rankest order [that] has to be dealt with."
The most significant factors shaping the contest are Robb's legal and personal troubles. During his 1988 Senate race, reports surfaced that Robb had attended parties where cocaine was used. Robb said he never saw cocaine at the parties.
In 1991, a former Miss Virginia-USA, Tai Collins, alleged that she had had an affair with Robb - which he denied - and posed nude for Playboy. Robb later acknowledged that his staff had obtained a tape recording of a Wilder phone call, and three of Robb's aides pleaded guilty to violating federal law. Robb himself was investigated, but a grand jury recently declined to indict him. Robb said the investigation of him had amounted to a personal attack on him by prosecutors.
During the 18-month investigation, Robb's popularity fell to its lowest level ever. And because he did not attempt to raise money for his re-election effort over the past two years, his campaign coffers are virtually empty.
"Of all those senators up for re-election in 1994, we will start further back financially and further back politically than anyone else," said Roland McElroy, Robb's administrative assistant. "In preparing for this race, you assume that the toughest possible opponent will be offered by one or both parties."
Robb's most eager Republican challenger is North, who has been stumping the state relentlessly for at least a year. North's chief of staff, Mark Merritt, estimates that North attended 100 GOP events in Virginia in 1992, and Republicans across the state say he consistently is their biggest draw.
Although North says he has not decided whether to run, most GOP leaders believe he will be a candidate. Former Republican state chairman Donald Huffman of Roanoke has agreed to head an exploratory committee North is forming. And North has collected and spent more than $500,000 through his own political action committee, V-PAC.
But North has significant political problems of his own. He played a leading role in the Iran-Contra affair and was found guilty of accepting money illegally, although his conviction was later overturned. His actions made him a hero to many conservatives, but his record could frighten away some moderate voters.
"I was in Louisiana last week," said William Schneider, a political scientist at the American Enterprise Institute, "and the one thing everybody asked me about was whether Ollie North could get elected. There's a lot of interest in him. But I think it's going to be very tough."
Although senior Republicans agree that North is the leading contender, a battle for the nomination appears certain. Miller, who also has been traveling widely in Virginia, said last week that he probably will form a campaign committee before the GOP state convention in June. Among others looking at the race are Richard Cullen, the U.S. attorney for Eastern Virginia, former U.S. solicitor general Kenneth W. Starr and onetime Republican gubernatorial candidate Marshall Coleman.
For Robb, however, the most bitter challenge could come from Wilder. The two have engaged in a running feud that goes back at least 10 years, when Wilder threatened to bolt the party in a dispute with Robb.
Wilder "has said he will not support Sen. Robb," said Wilder's spokesman, Glenn Davidson. "He has said he would expect a challenge, whether it be he or someone else."
Some analysts say that Robb would be favored in a matchup against Wilder, primarily because Wilder has quarreled with many Democratic regulars while Robb has attempted to keep his party ties intact. But such a contest could badly injure Robb.
Several analysts believe Wilder might make good on his old threat to leave his party and run as an independent, setting up a three-way November race between Robb, Wilder and the Republican nominee.
Sabato said a crowded field makes it harder for an individual candidate to stand out, making it more likely that each of the three candidates would directly attack his rivals' weaknesses.
"With the dynamics and demographics of a race like that, you can make a case for any one of those people winning," Sabato said. "It would be a nuclear meltdown, one of the most polarizing races ever in Virginia."
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