Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: FRIDAY, January 8, 1993 TAG: 9301080137
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Los Angeles Times
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium
U.S., ALLIES AWAIT SIGN FROM IRAQ
The prospect of a new air strike against Iraq hung in the balance Thursday as Baghdad sent mixed signals over whether it plans to comply with Western demands to remove anti-aircraft missiles from southern Iraq by late today.Barely 24 hours after the allies issued their ultimatum, the Iraqi ambassador to the United Nations, Nizar Hamdoon, met briefly with his counterparts from the United States, Britain, France and Russia, but refused to say definitively whether his government would meet their demands.
At the same time, Western intelligence sources said Iraq appeared to have begun moving some of the missiles. They added it still was not clear whether the Iraqis actually were taking them out of the U.N.-imposed no-fly zone or merely shuffling them about in a sort of cat-and-mouse game.
Some Western analysts suggested Baghdad may have wanted to use Thursday's grace period to assert its independence as a face-saving gesture before finally removing the missiles from the zone just before 5:15 p.m., when the 48-hour deadline expires.
Part of the problem in discerning the Iraqis' intentions was heavy cloud cover over southern Iraq, which apparently hid some of the missile-moving activity from intelligence-gathering satellites. The Iraqis also appeared to be moving the missiles slowly, to avoid providing any clear direction.
Nevertheless, key administration officials and allied diplomats were decidedly cautious about predicting what Iraq ultimately would do. "We're just going to have to wait it out," one well-placed policy-maker said.
The clock began Wednesday evening, when the four allied powers, all permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, gave Iraq 48 hours to remove the Soviet-built SA-2 and SA-3 missiles or face possible U.S. and allied air strikes.
U.S. officials say Iraq has been breaching the no-fly zone in recent weeks to test the West's resolve, particularly during the transition between the Bush and the incoming Clinton administrations. On Dec. 27, U.S. jets downed an Iraqi fighter over the zone.
U.S. officials continued to hold firm on the ultimatum Thursday, with President Bush reiterating to a group of freshmen members of Congress that Washington was prepared to begin military action against Iraq if Baghdad failed to comply with the allied instructions.
President-elect Clinton again endorsed Bush's stand on the Iraqi issue. Clinton's spokesman, George Stephanopoulos, called Iraqi President Saddam Hussein "an outlaw" and warned that Clinton would be no easier on him than Bush has been.
Pentagon planners said that for the moment, Washington intended to hold any military action to a quick, single-day's strike, eliminating Iraqi missile positions in southern Iraq and possibly destroying several airfields used by jets near the no-fly zone border.
At the same time, officials conceded that if Iraq decides to stand its ground - or even escalate the action - it could push the two countries into their hottest military confrontation since the Persian Gulf war in early 1991.
"We're not looking to do more than we have to, but we can't accept less than full-compliance and non-interference," one U.S. official said. "But the risk has always been there, if he decides he wants to escalate."
Senior U.S. officials said the answer to that question was likely to hinge on how Saddam felt he could best use the current crisis to strengthen himself politically at home - by provoking the allied coalition further or edging back from the brink.
"The way he sits, all of this is clearly shaped by his desire to demonstrate that he is standing up to the coalition and is breaking out of his (U.N.-imposed) restraints," one government analyst said. "Today is a kind of in-between day for that."